Quite 'confusing' four days, must say. Though, given all the lies thrown up by Russians, no surprise at all...
First first things first...
An Update for 12 December: Amaq claimed another SyAAF jet shot down over T-4, plus three jets and/or helicopters destroyed on the ground. This should have happened during the first 'official' big assault on Tiyas AB.
13 December
Not a single take-off was reported before 13.50hrs local time, when one Su-22 launched from Shayrat AB in northern direction (i.e. not in direction of Palmyra). Probable reason was bad weather, but also sheer exhaustion after all the flying of the last few days.
Considering Daesh's siege of T-4, and reported 'evacuation' of aircraft from there, it was interesting to see a single Su-24 took off from Tiyas AB, around 14.23hrs local time, and another at 14.50hrs. All flying then ceased around 16.00hrs local time, and no further take-offs were reported for the next five hours.
Russians launched few additional strikes during the night, including one at 21.50hrs, and three between 23.45 and 23.48.
Totals
SyAAF
helicopters: 0
L-39: 0
MiG-21: 0
MiG-23: 1
Su-22: 5
Su-24: 2
UAV: 0
VKS: 5
V-MF: 0
helicopters: 0
***********
14 December
The day began with a single Russian helicopter reported over Western Idlib around 00.22hrs, followed by a take-off of a single Russian fighter-bomber from Hmemmem AB, a minute later. Further take-offs from Hmemmem AB were reported at 01.09, 01.53, 02.03, 02.06, 02.10, 02.11, 02.19, and 03.45hrs local time indicating quite vivid Russian activty. starting at 02.31hrs local time, most of these seem to have targeted Eastern Aleppo, once again denying announcements by Keystone Cops that they ceased bombing Aleppo in October. Indeed, one of these air strikes seems to have hit IRGC positions in Rashideen District of Aleppo.
Around 02.24, one SyAAF Su-24 was launched from Tiyas AB and this turned in 'north-eastern direction' after take-off, indicating possible mission against Daesh in Palmyra area. Another did the same around 03.54hrs.
There was no SyAAF reaction to a double SVBIED attack - followed by assaults from three sides - on Tiyas AB, reported by Amaq around the noon that day (can't find the source any more, sorry), but during the day photos appeared of the SyAAF Mi-25 '2808' at Tiyas.
Weather seems to have stopped all activity during the day, until 16.03hrs, when a single 'Russian' aircraft was reported while approaching Khan Touman. Whether this was a weather-recce sortie or an air strike, remains unclear.
At 18.33, a single Su-24 was launched from Shayrat AB, followed by another - but from Tiyas - at 18.54hrs. Both flew in north-eastern direction. Meanwhile, Russians launched one fighter-jet from Hmemmem AB, at 18.54, and one L-39 was reported as airborne at 18.54 east of Aleppo. Four Russian fighter-jets were launched from Hmemmem AB between 20.31 and 20.32hrs, another at 21.15, and one at 22.11hrs. Two L-39s were active in Aleppo area too that evening, one reportedly taking off from Kweres at 22.39, another at 23.03hrs.
Totals
SyAAF
helicopters: 0
L-39: 3
MiG-21: 0
MiG-23: 0
Su-22: 0
Su-24: 4
UAV: 0
VKS: 17
V-MF: 0
helicopters: 1
***********
15 December
The day began with a single Su-24 taking-off from Tiyas AB around 00.15hrs. While it's unclear what was bombed by it, two L-39s that took off from Hama AB at 00.41 and 00.51 were active in Khan Sheikhoun area (southern Idlib). A single Russian fighter-bomber took off from Hmemmem AB at 02.20hrs.
Once the weather cleared sufficiently, both the SyAAF and the VKS began launching more strikes around 09.32hrs: the SyAAF sortie in question included a single Su-24 from Tiyas AB. Two minutes later, even a single UAV was observed over Western Idlib. Four Su-22s launched from Shayrat by 10.20hrs - all going in north-eastern or eastern direction - i.e. probably against Daesh in Palmyra area.
Much more activity was reported starting from 11.00hrs, including two MiG-23s and two Su-22s from Shayrat, helicopters from Hama, UAVs over Idlib Governorate, two take-offs from Hmemmem and two high-flying Russians over Western Idlib (possibly indicating sorties from Kuznetsov). Even a 'reconnaissance' aircraft was reported overflying Khan Sheikhoun in eastern direction, around 11.36hrs.
Two Su-24s launched from Tiyas AB (indicating the base was NOT evacuated) at 13.04 and 13.05, both flying away in north-eastern direction, and Hama AB launched a single MiG-21 around 13.35hrs. Later during the day, FSyA rocketed Hama AB with BM-21s, at least temporarily stopping operations from there.
Through all of this time, sporadic activity of Russian fighter-jets was reported from Ma'arat an-Nauman area. More Su-22s and few MiG-23s took off from Shayrat after 14.00hrs, and a single Su-24 from Tiyas at 14.27hrs. Curiously, though all of this time - and just like in the last few days - no helicopter activity was reported from this area at all.
All SyAAF activity ceased around 14.45, and Russians became active around 15.15hrs instead, launching single air strikes from Hmemmem AB - mostly in direction of Jishr ash-Shughour or further north-east (i.e. well away from direction of Palmyra).
Two Su-24s that launched from Shayrat AB at 15.43 and 15.58 flew in direction of Aleppo, i.e. Khan Touman. Four others, launched at 16.02 and 16.03, bombed targets in Idlib area. Two more followed at 17.55 and 18.13, and also flew in northern, not in eastern direction: seems they have bombed the evacuation route agreed between Russians and Turks, while two others deployed reported CBUs on the insurgent-held pocket in Eastern Aleppo - both of which is in violation of the cease-fire and evacuation agreement.
If truth, such reports would be interesting also because the SyAAF didn't drop any kind of CBUs since years.
Gauging by number of Su-24-take-offs from Shayrat, it seems that most of Su-24s launched from Tiyas in the last few days were 'evacuated' to this air base. Nevertheless, two Su-24-take-offs were reported from T-4 at 19.28 and 19.46hrs.
L-39s from Kweres AB became active around 18.34, and targeted Eastern Aleppo and Latamina with a total of five air strikes flown by 19.00hrs. Another took-off around 20.04hrs.
Russians continued their operations with a total of six air strikes launched from Hmemmem AB between 20.53hrs and 21.27, while another L-39 took off from Hama around 21.29 to attack targets in Khan Sheikhoun area. Up to four Russian air strikes hit Khan Touman area round 21.42hrs: it is possible that the aircraft in question came from Kuznetsov.
A single Su-24 took off from Tiyas at 22.44hrs, another from Shayrat at 22.54hrs, while another series of VKS take-offs from Hmemmem followed between 22.50hrs and 23.41hrs. Most of these have hit the Jishr ash-Shughour area, before midnight.
Totals
SyAAF
helicopters: 1
L-39: 6
MiG-21: 1
MiG-23: 9
Su-22: 13
Su-24: 14
UAV: 2
VKS: 35
V-MF: 3 (possible)
helicopters: 4
recce: 1
Additionally, a single IRIAF C-130 dropped supplies over Fouh/Kefraya.
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