Originally Posted by
Watcher In The Middle
01 The 2007 NIE really seriously damaged any efforts at building a coalition supporting military action again Iran. As long as Iran doesn't get stupid from where we are today, they've got a odds-on pass through November, 2008.
02 The problem Iran has vrs. relations with the US is that things are unlikely to change from now, regardless of political Administration, from now probably through the first term of the next POTUS. I mean, think about it - Iran basically has 3 doors to choose from (or no change):
Door 1: Current Administration. Door is good through 11.2008, expired after that.
Door 2: New Administration (Democratic): Assume most likely candidate for position is H. Clinton. How is Ahmadinejad going to make those negotiations work? (You've got elements of a religious repressive society, a host of women's issues, wants to eliminate Israel, homosexual oppression, and a whole host of other issues). There's going to be all sorts of SIG's (Special Interest Groups) all over this one, and they'll win.
Door 3: New Administration (Republican): Assume most likely candidate for position is R. Giuliani. How is Ahmadinejad going to make those negotiations work? (You've got elements of a religious repressive society, wants to eliminate Israel, a host of women's issues, homosexual oppression, and a whole host of other issues). Again, there's going to be all sorts of SIG's all over this one.
Honestly, looking at the above, we might as well put the US-Iran relations into the freezer and come back and re-visit them sometime in 2013.
As crazy as it sounds, the best US-Iran dealmaking climate looks to be right now []. And more importantly, everybody else wanting the job will want this one off the table before their watch kicks in.
My question would be how Ahmadinejad, and more importantly, Khameini view dealing with the US? They might just be fine with putting any national relationship change with the US on hold all the way into 2013. Because once there's a new POTUS, nothing is likely to happen first term re: Iran (unless both/either party gets stupid). Thoughts?
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