Quote Originally Posted by marct View Post
Personally, I'm still waiting to find (or build ) a theoretical model that is more predictive than the two currently available.
I subscribe to the following theory:


1. The insane are only geopolitically dangerous if the sane start following them.
2. The sane will only start following the insane if they feel hopeless and have no sane options.

So when you have a charismatic nut job - i.e. Hitler and UBL - plus a bunch of hopeless people, you have the potential for the formation of a very bizarre and destructive movement.

Since lunacy is difficult to eradicate or predict, it makes sense not to have large groups of hopeless people: i.e. the Marshall plan.

But that doesn't mean these movement are inevitable, or our government is screwed up or whatever. It just means that when these conditions exist, this can happen.

Probably the best way to predict is to listen to the nut job. Both Hitler and UBL said what they were going to do before they did it.