Hamas in Gaza (merged thread)

[Rex Brynen]

So linking Gaza to the West Bank, again, for no useful purpose. No rockets coming out of the West bank (yet).

Much as some might want to delink them, Palestinians still see them both as Palestine.

I for one, am utterly disgusted by the acts of the illegal (mostly ultra-orthodox "new comers") settlers in the West Bank. How is the theft of an olive grove near Tul Karem, a block to peace in Gaza, with a Terrorist group bent on the destruction of Israel? To link the two defies good judgement and plays in Hamas's hands.

There are over 282,000 settlers currently living the in occupied Palestinian territory, and at any given time almost one-third of the West Bank is off-limits to most Palestinians. From a Palestinian point of view, settlement activity is an existential threat too, threatening to permanently prevent them from ever enjoying self-determination in an independent state. Indeed, I think it could well be argued that West Bank settlements are more likely to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state than Gaza rockets are to destroy the Israeli one.

Arguing that you should disarm while a foreign power is gobbling up your territory isn't likely to sell any better in Gaza than it would anywhere else in the world.

Let me be clear on the rocket fire coming out of Gaza: it is criminal and stupid in equal measures. I'm not the slightest bit surprised that Israel has shifted to a strategy of massive retaliation in an effort to change that particular equation. I am arguing, however, that no one should expect any kind of international force to end the challenge of an armed Hamas, absent a whole series of other things happening in the broader peace process (none of which I see happening).

What are we therefore left with? I would suggest the following:

1) An Israeli exit strategy that leaves a sense that leaves Hamas both physically and politically weakened. The tricky part here is the latter, since it may only take a few rockets the day after the IDF withdraws for Hamas to make a credible argument to its constituency that by surviving 2(+) weeks of Israeli onslaught and still firing back at the end it "won."

2) Impairing the ability of Hamas to rearm by working with the Egyptians to reduce smuggling from the Egyptian side of the border. This is better done with technical assistance than a high-profile international presence.

3) Recognition that as long as the siege of Gaza continues a ceasefire won't last. Returning the border crossings to PA control would provide Israel with political excuse to reopen them properly (something that never really happened even BEFORE Hamas was in control of Gaza), and would assure that credit for this doesn't flow to Hamas.

4) A reinvigorated Fateh, more able to take Hamas on politically. This requires both Fateh reform and a meaningful post-(Israeli) election peace process. I'm not optimistic on either score.

I would have added something on Fateh-Hamas reconciliation dialogue too, but to be frank I think the current violence makes that unlikely any time soon.

If one wants to add a few international observers in the mix as diplomatic window-dressing, that's fine. But be clear that's all they are.