but I'll accept a nice glass of white merlot.![]()
This software beats the hell out of manually constructing a matrix!
One of the things that my professor neglected to teach was the necessity of working across the matrix evaluating a piece of evidence against all hypotheses, rather than working down through all evidence under a hypothesis. When I was first learning this method, I had all kinds of frustration going on. Between the ACH tutorial and chapter Eleven in the book The Thinker's Toolkit I found the process much easier and effective.
The thing that I like about it is that one matrix can be used to evaluate many hypotheses simultaneously. The software runs the math functions, making it easier to eliminate the highly unlikely hypotheses. Then you can identify intelligence gaps, consolidate or split hypotheses (add new ones too) and improve your evidence list, then reevaluate. I didn't take the time to refine my matrix in this manner yesterday, but if this were for a product I would have done so.
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