Quote Originally Posted by rborum View Post
That seems to focus on the question of force, working backward to deconstruct and understand why/how it was applied to achieve some objective. I was focusing more on the objective - CG control, e.g. - , and working forward to understand why/how force might facilitate or impede it. But, again, not disagreeing with the general point.
It focuses on the adversary -- he or it should be the determinant on the degree, type and methodology of force -- if any. Force is simply a tool, nothing more. Like any tool it must be used sensibly or you'll damage something you didn't mean to harm. Adversaries do not always require force for containment. In fact, I believe most do not; prompt and early response without force or with very minimal force can stop many such internal conflicts before they escalate to major confrontations.

The point is, once you commit any military elements to the effort, you are committing to use force or will be perceived as being prepared to do so; sometimes the same thing in the minds of many.
... insurgent forces often feel less constrained by international norms or by the explicit and implicit rules of engagement. I suppose, though, that adversary-driven force strategy doesn't necessarily mean doing unto others as they do unto us.
It should not since frequently the primary purpose of insurgents ignoring Mao's rules and antagonizing the populace is to get their opponents to do the same things and thus turn the populace against the nominal counterinsurgents. Most people know this, a few tend to forget it when angry or driven by inane directives or orders from people in faraway places.
...Lyall & Wilson made in their recent study of 286 insurgencies. Kinetic selectivity really seems to be a major driving force in determining whether a population will perceive the third-party counterinsurgent as protectors or threatening invaders. Lack of selectivity seems to embolden insurgent recruitment. They comment that: "With the innocent and guilty equally likely to be punished, rational individuals will seek security and predictability with insurgent groups" (p.77).
I'm dubious -- and that supposition BTW long precedes their study. It is true when force is applied indiscriminately but that rarely occurs. What more often occurs is that force is applied selectively and innocents are caught in the fight. Most people understand the difference and rarely go flocking to either side after such an event. They really just want both sides to go away and leave them alone.

Either way, unmeant or unnecessary killings and woundings will drive some -- but not most or even many -- to the insurgents and of those that go, other than a small number for whom the episode was particularly searing, most will drift away soon as time does its healing magic and the tough life of an insurgent takes its toll.

There are no easy solutions and no pat answers -- if there were, they'd have been found long ago. You cannot codify human responses and develop a matrix for 'what to do.'