Causal Link Diagram -- AFG Information

[Spud]

If anyone is all that interested ... here's what we came up with in the end.

Caveats

• It supports the design team's articulation of the problem and so may not make much sense to the rest of you.
• This is a breakout of one node on a larger "spaghetti mind ####" diagram built using MIDLIFE-S as a construct -- essentially it looks at establishing and maintaining the dominant narrative (a key node in the larger diagram). For those that aren’t aware the ‘Dominant Narrative” has become the new buzzword in aall of recent doctrine development. Everyone’s knows we need it but no one has ever really mapped out what that means.
• Is based at ISAF but from an Aussie perspective
• Is influenced heavily by a few bottles of 2006 Cabernet Sauvignon -- I suggest you probably need the same to appreciate its full utility

Jas

[burkestar]

Are system dynamics models, influence diagrams or concept maps actually used? I can definitely see the use for design (a picture speaks a thousand words), but how does this translate into planning?

I guess drilling-down on the subissues involved (like brainstorming approaches to busting xenophobia suggested by MikeF) is the next step. Would Col Jones's "so what?" translate into some form of action items? How would all this knowledge be captured?

v/r
- Dustin

[Spud]

Are system dynamics models, influence diagrams or concept maps actually used? I can definitely see the use for design (a picture speaks a thousand words), but how does this translate into planning?

I guess drilling-down on the subissues involved (like brainstorming approaches to busting xenophobia suggested by MikeF) is the next step. Would Col Jones's "so what?" translate into some form of action items? How would all this knowledge be captured?

v/r
- Dustin

For us this whole design process has been about devloping understanding. The diagrams are more for the team than they are for briefing. We understand what they mean but passing that on is difficult. Our key outputs have been a written design narrative (an articulation of the journey we undertook) and a design concept that supposedly a plans team can read and then get on with (I'm yet to be convinced of this aspect).

[Hacksaw]

I know I'm late to the discussion and the product is briefed (ergo most likely OBE)...

Can't agree with BW more... and essentially I think the big missing node in your diagram is Coalition Operations (because as BW says, the nature of our actions has an information quality all their own... and is far more important) and unless the communications and operations planning/execution are intrinsicly linked and coherent... there is no amount of STRATCOM/Messaging/Perception Shaping you can do to overcome that incongruency...

I think that has been the real purpose of the COIN guidance that Petraeus and subsequently McCrystal and Odierno published...

Best of luck working with "Design"....

[Spud]

I know I'm late to the discussion and the product is briefed (ergo most likely OBE)...

Can't agree with BW more... and essentially I think the big missing node in your diagram is Coalition Operations (because as BW says, the nature of our actions has an information quality all their own... and is far more important) and unless the communications and operations planning/execution are intrinsicly linked and coherent... there is no amount of STRATCOM/Messaging/Perception Shaping you can do to overcome that incongruency...

I think that has been the real purpose of the COIN guidance that Petraeus and subsequently McCrystal and Odierno published...

Best of luck working with "Design"....

It is in our final as attached in my second post above ... the big black line which when I brief is the major point of emphasis ... all the words in the world matter little if what the Afghans see doesn't match.

Thanks all for your help. Briefing a 3-star today so I'll let you know how it goes.

And as for design ... I'm the monkey that gets to tell him the concept is great if the design team transitions to become the plans team. We're still yet to work out how to effectively transfer all the knowledge the design team accumulates if we have to H/O to another group. In my gut design has just become what the IPB and MA should always have been but … I’m just a simple guy.

[Hacksaw]

In my gut design has just become what the IPB and MA should always have been but … I’m just a simple guy.

Grasshopper you have learned the deep/dirty secret.... I have yet to participate in or see the outcome of a design process that I didn't reach the same conclusion...

Of course this is not a popular opinion at the Intellectual Center of the Army... More than a few advocates have described in excrutiating detail that design goes beyond and yet not as far as MA... "Deep understanding of the situation"... what a crock of BS...

If a planner wasn't seeking as deep an understanding of the situation as he possibly could... in the time allotted... to better understand the mission and range of possible solutions, they were negligent...Period...

that said, if the nature of our organizational culture has reached a point in which MA had become a finger drill and Design is needed to pull it back into a thinking man's (gender non-specific) business - fine... I guess, but...

We are experimenting with this idea of design in time constrained environments.... huh... if design is a process of exploration to develop a deep understanding of the situation (as opposed to mission)... it is by its nature time intensive - so before we have even codified the process we are distorting it beyond recognition

[MikeF]

Grasshopper you have learned the deep/dirty secret.... I have yet to participate in or see the outcome of a design process that I didn't reach the same conclusion...

Of course this is not a popular opinion at the Intellectual Center of the Army... More than a few advocates have described in excrutiating detail that design goes beyond and yet not as far as MA... "Deep understanding of the situation"... what a crock of BS...

If a planner wasn't seeking as deep an understanding of the situation as he possibly could... in the time allotted... to better understand the mission and range of possible solutions, they were negligent...Period...

that said, if the nature of our organizational culture has reached a point in which MA had become a finger drill and Design is needed to pull it back into a thinking man's (gender non-specific) business - fine... I guess, but...

We are experimenting with this idea of design in time constrained environments.... huh... if design is a process of exploration to develop a deep understanding of the situation (as opposed to mission)... it is by its nature time intensive - so before we have even codified the process we are distorting it beyond recognition

There's a whole lot of wisdom in that post. After studying wicked problems, casual loop diagrams, scientific method, engineering method, and countless others, I returned to the initial conclusion that IF you get the facts and assumptions right, then IPB and MA give you the answers.

All too often, facts and assumptions are hand-waved or ignored b/c they are not politically correct.

For instance, try this one in your MA process:

Fact-
1. Afghans are highly xenophobic and do not want foreigners in their land.

That won't make the boss happy, but by understanding, you can work it into your influence plan and have amazing results. I learned this one by dealing with Sunnis in Iraq. Their jaws dropped to the floor when I opened a very hostile engagement with this statement,

"I realize that y'all are in a civil war right now and the Shia gov't is attacking you and witholding funds so you are frustated and siding with AQI. I'm not taking a side. I'm here to help y'all mediate your differences. If you attack me, then I will crush you. I will bring the full weight of the American arsenal down on your village. If you cooperate, then I will pressure the Shias as well and we will try to make a better future for both of your children."

It helped me to broker past the perceptions and get on with negotiations. You can't ignore the elephant in the room. If I was in Afghan right now, I'd be drinking chai and listening to war stories about how they used to fight the Russians.

Mike