Jeeez. I post something, minding my own business, wake up in the morning and find I am now hosting a thread? As they say in the US Army, "Buddy is only half of the word...")

So, going back in time a bit, one of the things that got me thinking about this was what I saw as a powerful, yet misguided, obsession with Islamism and ideology. The US position was, (and probably remains), that Islamist ideology is the center of gravity for the entire damn GWOT/long war/global insurgency, etc, etc.

That just didn't square up with me. Sure, the ideology of a movement is what is in your face, as are the terrorist events; but does that mean one is dealing with an ideologically driven terrorist movement? I think not. I think CvC is correct that war is politics; and that insurgency is about internal politics and wars between states are more about external politics.

Slap says that Motivation is most important. I could argue that either way; but I would stand firm on the point that motivation alone will not ignite a successful insurgency unless you have conditions of causation in place first.

I would describe those things I bundle under motivation (dynamic leadership; ideology; dramatic events, etc) as Critical Requirements (CRs) to a COG of "Support of the Populace"; but not as standalone COGs. You must have them, but these are the things that ignite and sustain an insurgency; but why is it you can have them in one society and have an insurgency, and in another a 200 word story on page 5 of the local paper?

Why is one man a "crackpot" spewing "crazy talk"; while another is a dynamic leader with a profound message??? It’s a fine line, and that line moves as conditions among the target populace change. But change in what way? What changes are critical and must be addressed, and what changes are immaterial? One could argue that over his reign of activity in post WWI Germany that Hitler morphed from Crackpot, to dynamic leader and back to Crackpot again. What changed? I argue that what changed were the perceptions of the German populace.

As I like to say, "The Pied Piper is a fairy tale." What I find though, is that there are many smart people who are willing to believe in fairy tales. I, however, am a skeptic. I do not believe that some dynamic leader can come along, and play his magic flute of ideology, and lead a satisfied populace (experiencing "good governance") to its insurgent doom. I just don't buy it.

I also found Maslow's work instructive. Most were focusing on "effectiveness of governance" and were pounding away at the importance of the bottom of his pyramid. And that may well be true for the average fighter who comes to Helmand in Poppy season as a migrant worker to make some money working the poppy harvest; and then stays to make some money through the summer planting IEDs or fighting with the Taliban. For a Pashtun, getting paid to fight is like paying a teenage American boy to date Megan Fox.

But what is it that creates the conditions that would cause men like our US founding fathers to risk their fortunes, families, reputations and very lives to form the sustaining nucleus of an ultimately successful insurgency? As mentioned above, the FACTs in the Southern colonies were very different than in the middle colonies, and then in the New England colonies. So get past the facts. How did those men FEEL about the facts that they were experiencing?

This takes us to the top of Maslow's pyramid. Respect, Justice, etc. Much higher order aspects of human fulfillment than chasing one's next meal. If I am hungry I will poach a deer in the King's forest. If I am disrespected and live in a world with no justice I will go after the King himself.

Those who think that millions of Muslims living in the Middle East are supporting efforts against the West either directly or indirectly because of the leadership of Bin Laden or the skewed perspective on Islam that he employs as ideology do these people a tremendous disservice. It also very conveniently takes a position that allows the West to ignore its own transgressions against these very people.

Ok, so that's a start at what I am getting at, look forward to hearing what others think. And to all of you "lurkers" out there, please to weigh in, even if it is just with a sentence or two. At the end of the day, I don't want to prove that I am right, I want to figure out what is right. And one of you may well hold the key that will unlock that door.

Regards,

Bob