How To Win

[slapout9]

Some, as Slap indicated, are trending upwards in their perceptions. But as I told a hardcore, Tea Party attending, retired Marine Colonel friend of mine. "You're mad as hell, and extremely concerned about the direction government is going, but you are no where close to becoming an insurgent are you?" "No," he replied. "That's becuase you have hope. You know, that no matter what, in 3 years you will get to vote and that your vote will count, and that it 7 years no matter what you will have a new President." "Damn straight," he replied.

When we chip away at the puplic trust in our system, we chip away at our national security. By understanding the Jones Model, one understands not just what to focus on in Afghanistan; but also what to focus on in dealing with the Saudis or the Israelis, but when approaching domestic policy issues as well.

Except, I think there are factions of the Tea party and other groups that no longer have any hope and they are preparing for an insurgency. I was talking with some LE friends awhile ago and there is some scary stuff goin on that hasn't been present since the 60's and 70's When people show up at Political rallies......with Guns.... that is sending a very dangerous message.

[Bob's World]

Except, I think there are factions of the Tea party and other groups that no longer have any hope and they are preparing for an insurgency. I was talking with some LE friends awhile ago and there is some scary stuff goin on that hasn't been present since the 60's and 70's When people show up at Political rallies......with Guns.... that is sending a very dangerous message.

The best yards are those that are maintained regularly throughout the year. Populaces are much the same.

As I said, all four causal perceptions must be monitored and nurtured constantly to keep a populace in "peace." What often causes governments to stumble is that they take themselves too seriously, and discount the perceptions of the people in favor for those perceptions they form of themselves from their fine offices, surrounded by those who owe their positions to their patronage.

Are there some Americans who question the legitimacy of the President? Certainly, you see this when they call for his Birth Certificate. There were many who questioned the legitimacy of President Bush as well due to the "hanging chads" in Florida. No one factor will result in insurgency, but when the factors begin to stack up it is best to nip it in the bud long before it goes violent. Thank God we addressed the Civil Rights movement as soon as we did, in the manner we did; but event that was long over due.

Insurgencies happen for a reason. Good Governance is hard.

[slapout9]

The best yards are those that are maintained regularly throughout the year. Populaces are much the same.

As I said, all four causal perceptions must be monitored and nurtured constantly to keep a populace in "peace." What often causes governments to stumble is that they take themselves too seriously, and discount the perceptions of the people in favor for those perceptions they form of themselves from their fine offices, surrounded by those who owe their positions to their patronage.

Are there some Americans who question the legitimacy of the President? Certainly, you see this when they call for his Birth Certificate. There were many who questioned the legitimacy of President Bush as well due to the "hanging chads" in Florida. No one factor will result in insurgency, but when the factors begin to stack up it is best to nip it in the bud long before it goes violent. Thank God we addressed the Civil Rights movement as soon as we did, in the manner we did; but event that was long over due.

Insurgencies happen for a reason. Good Governance is hard.

BW, yes all 4 factors have to come into play. But where your model may need to be adjusted is when you are dealing with a developed country vs. a less developed country. The economic driver is more pronounced in developed countries, by that I mean a country such as the US which may be about to cut social services (California) has a greater chance of a Civil Emergency than a less developed country which has never known any type government supported population centric survival programs. I just invented that term

In our case when the private sector fails and it has failed if the government does not step in and support the Entire population vs. a small protected class than Civil Disturbance is sure to follow. Watch California it is 1/8 of the US economy depending upon which estimate you believe. If those cuts happen on the scale that the Govenator is proposing....watch out.

The best selling COIN manual is about to be replaced by another manual, The US Army Civil Disturbance manual. I just watched the John Nash movie this weekend "A Beautiful Mind". In it there is a scene where he proves that Adam Smith was wrong! It is the "Governing Dynamics" that matter!

Which leads me to my final point about hope, if people can not survive economically until the next election cycle (years) it isn't going to matter. When the private sector fails all that is left is the government, when the government fails all that is left is Civil Emergency. Which is in your paper and I agree it is really a more appropriate term then this Insurgency stuff.

Time for more coffee.