Ukraine: non-military aspects (August 2014-December 2015)

[kaur]

AP, let's try to backtrack. In the end of November 2013 Yanukovich didn't put signature to AA/DCFTA with EU.

8.12.2013 happened this in Kiev http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhwtsjFbQK4#t=20

In the beginning of Decembre, there was Russian compatriots meeting in Crimea with high rankink guests from Russian presidential administration, Duma, RF embassy, etc. Under their eyes locals started to beat fascism drum. 2 months before violent action in Maidan. What flags did you see in this video? Those slogans became favourite in Russian propaganda.

Stop Nazism, fascism, xenophobia and Russophobia in Ukraine!
STATEMENT


We, the authorized representatives of organizations of Russian compatriots in Ukraine, can not remain indifferent to the fact that hangs over Ukraine brown haze of neo-Nazism and fascism, xenophobia and Russophobia. Today in Kyiv impunity are thousands of marches and rallies of neo-Nazi thugs who chant fascist and xenophobic slogans in the media openly and widely promoted the principles of neo-Nazism and fascism. Nationalist parties and social organizations, of which there are several dozen in Ukraine, a number of media, as well as individual public servants and teachers of educational institutions, openly engaged in illegal neo-Nazi propaganda, and this ideology implanted in Ukrainian society, especially among young people.

We declare that if the Ukrainian authorities do not take against the spread of neo-Nazism and fascism preventive measures prescribed by the Constitution and laws of Ukraine, tomorrow may be too late.

Not so long ago, due to the recent political developments in the country, the so-called "high command VO" Trident "name of Stepan Bandera," issued a statement, which, in case of implementation by Ukraine of the Eurasian integration, they are going to open, "announce a large-scale mobilization of its members and supporters "and" ready to take up arms. "In a civilized country signatories of this statement for a long time would be arrested and prosecuted for public calls "an armed struggle against the state power."

In the same Lviv about one hundred and fifty youths wearing white masks marched through the center of the city, chanting racist and nationalist slogans, including: "Ukraine for Ukrainians", "Sieg Heil!", "Death to the enemies!" ... Lviv Mayor called this march "Shame on the city," but none of the participants in the march to justice has not been involved.

Impunity felt fascist speakers at the recent "Evromaydane" in Kiev, where some Diana Kamlyuk, otbyvshaya sentence for incitement to racial hatred, combined with violence and killing Nigerian openly proclaimed the idea of anti-Semitism and xenophobia, calling the victims of the Holocaust "Jewish soap" and denying the Nuremberg War Tribunal against Nazism and fascism. None of the "evrointegratorov" did not stop and did not condemn the provocative performance of ultra-nationalist, which according to the European laws would long ago have been behind bars.

Her supporters of a political party "Freedom" to break into the social and national demagogy to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, introduced a bill, which proposes to replace the term "The Great Patriotic War." The position of the neo-Nazis in this matter is clear. What can be "great" in collaborators of UPA, which fought a civil war against his Ukrainian people? The bloody trail of crimes UPA extends not only in Ukraine, but also in Belarus, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Yugoslavia.

Today, when Ukraine is preparing to meet the 70th anniversary of liberation from Nazi occupation by the Red Army, the descendants and heirs of the remnants of the Nazis openly raise their head. The tragic lessons of the Great Patriotic War, many Ukrainian politicians and bureaucrats are forgotten. In the state efforts ideological successors UPA - members of the party "Freedom" and their friends from the opposition, who call themselves "democrats and patriots" in full swing rewritten national history, distorted facts, defiled the memory of those who gave their lives in the struggle against the German -fashistskimi invaders.

Today bloody executioners and collaborators in western Ukraine erect monuments, they are called "fighters for freedom and independence of Ukraine." This monstrous lie offends cherished memory of our fathers and grandfathers who served in the Red Army, the partisans and underground selflessly fought for the independence of the Fatherland and the liberation of Ukraine from Nazi occupation. We are proud that our fathers and grandfathers broke the back of fascism and saved the world from Fascism.

Peoples court in Nuremberg Nazis and their accomplices (including UPA) were found to be responsible for all the crimes of Nazism. It was at the Nuremberg war crimes tribunal were presented compelling evidence that the UPA had never been members of the Ukrainian people and fighters for Ukrainian independence. It was Hitler's mercenaries, who took the oath of allegiance to Hitler, with arms in hand, in the composition of the Security Police and SD, punitive and police battalions in the structures of the Wehrmacht and Waffen SS in criminal, were directly involved in the implementation of war crimes against humanity.

UPA were particularly atrocity in the destruction of the civilian population - the elderly, children, women, humiliation and murder of prisoners of war. According to historians, at the hands of UPA fighters were killed and a half million Jews, more than a million Ukrainians to half a million Poles. Instead of creating the Book of Remembrance of the Victims of the OUN-UPA and condemn them as criminal organizations, local authorities in western Ukraine celebrate Hitler's mercenaries of UPA as "fighters for independence", rename their street names, fake history, whitewash hateful ideology and crimes Ukrainian fascism, contribute to the development of neo-Nazism in Ukraine.

We, the delegates V All-Ukrainian Conference of Russian Compatriots, appeal to the authorities of Ukraine and demand:

- Recognize the criminal ideology and activities of the OUN, UPA and their military forces, to prevent the promotion of neo-nazism and racial intolerance in the media, rehabilitation and glorification of Nazi collaborators, as well as manufacturing, distribution, display the fascist and Nazi symbols by political parties, associations of citizens, legal entities and persons;

- Ban neo-Nazi party All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom" and all the neo-Nazi movement in the Ukraine, to pass a law to ban all neo-wing radical organizations;

- Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and governments at all levels to give a principled assessment of any manifestations of neo-Nazism and political extremism, to bring to justice in accordance with the current legislation of persons engaged in the promotion of fascist and Nazi ideology, racial intolerance, as well as the production, distribution and demonstration of fascist and Nazi symbols ;

- Stop political speculation, aimed at the falsification of history, immediately adopt a law on criminal liability of persons who publicly deny and insult our heroic victory in the Great Patriotic War over Nazi Germany.


December 1, 2013

http://kr-eho.info/index.php?name=Ne...icle&sid=11030

Couple days after this compatriots meeting some participants demanded

In Simferopol, the party of "Russian unity" organized in front of the Supreme Council of Crimea attempts to rally against the violent overthrow of the current government and in support of the Customs Union. The protesters threatened to demand the return of the Crimea in the Russian Federation, unless in a coup Ukraine will manage the neo-Nazis, reported IA "New Region".

http://www.eurasian.su/news/simferop...vozvrashchenie

"Russian Unity" leader Aksenov is now head of Crimea and asked help from Russia in February. Couple years ago his party got in Ukrainian elections in Crimea 4% of voters support.

[AmericanPride]

Kaur,

There's been simmering separatist sentiment in Crimea since Ukrainian independence. So it's not at all surprising that the Russians capitalized on this when they seized the region. And given Ukraine's near constant political turmoil, it's also not surprising the Russians had a plan to to secure its own strategic interests. It's easy to read into hidden conspiracies by connecting these kinds events into some kind of master plan to make sense of the conflict, but it stretches the imagination to suggest that Moscow master-minded or engineered the Ukraine conflict from day one. The bottom line is that Moscow was better prepared than Washington for what followed the fall of Yanukoyvch's government. My complaint isn't so much that Washington interfered in Ukraine but that the U.S. was very short-sighted when it did so.

[kaur]

AP,

1. Putin said

The president warned that against the attempts to slow down the integration work on the post-Soviet space can be used a variety of enforcement mechanisms, including the so-called soft power.

2. You answered.

Originally Posted by Kaur
Fact is that in Ukraine the Putin's red line was crossed by Maidan in the end of November.

I concur.

3. Now you say.

And given Ukraine's near constant political turmoil, it's also not surprising the Russians had a plan to to secure its own strategic interests. It's easy to read into hidden conspiracies by connecting these kinds events into some kind of master plan to make sense of the conflict, but it stretches the imagination to suggest that Moscow master-minded or engineered the Ukraine conflict from day one.

AP, how Putin's plan look like if they don't consider A, B, C scenarios or worst case scenario? AS I understand, you consider this to be mission slip? I think that mission started seriously slip after "downing passanger plane = Western sanctions " episode.

[AmericanPride]

What do you mean by 'mission slip'?

[kaur]

AP, I just can speculate at the moment that Russians thought after Yanukovich failure, that they can use window of opportunity to grab a land. 1. round in Crimea went smoothly. In Donbas plan started to kick back. People didn't want to rebel and Ukrainians started to fight.

What was the plan you were talking about?

it's also not surprising the Russians had a plan

[AmericanPride]

What was the plan you were talking about?

I think the Russians had a military contingency plan in the event that their strategic interests in Crimea were threatened. I also think they at least had the foundations for a plan to support pro-Russian organizations in eastern Ukraine in the event of Ukrainian political turmoil. I do not think, however, the Russians had a plan to actually initiate revolution or civil war in Ukraine, and instead that they seized upon the 'window of opportunity', as you stated, to grab as much as they could before the door slammed shut in their face.

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--notice how well the Ukraine plays the "game" and still you have a problem with "suckered in".

‘Russia Doesn’t Have a Majority in the CIS on Ukraine,’ Baranov Says

Paul Goble October 10, 2014

Staunton, October 10 – While the Commonwealth of Independent States has never been a democratic union of equals, it is nonetheless true that “the CIS is not just Russia,” as Ukrainian parliamentarians point out, and that Russia’s loss of control of this group on an issue so important to it may hasten the demise of the 22-year-old union.

That is the judgment of Anatoly Baranov, the editor-in-chief of the FORUM.msk portal, in reaction to the apparent decision of Ukraine to remain within the CIS at least for the time being and use the support it has there from Belarus and Kazakhstan to form its own anti-Moscow majority.

If that happens, he continues, then Moscow might be forced “to leave the CIS or come to terms with the fact that it isn’t the main thing there.” Ukraine, the Russian analyst continues, is “beautifully using” a situation in which it isn’t going to be expelled but might leave “only voluntarily.”

At present, Baranov says, Kyiv “intends to remain a member of the CIS, to use all existing preferences there, and at the same time to develop relations with the European Union and even NATO.” And that in turn, he suggests, could even allow Ukraine to drive Russia out of the post-Soviet space.

In that event, he continues, Moscow will have to “establish a new post-USSR space” consisting of itself and the “unrecognized republics of Karabakh, South Osetia and Abkhazia, Transdniestria and now the Donetsk Peoples Republic and the Luhansk Peoples Republic,” to which might be added “the Pamir Peoples Republic, Transcarpathia, the territory of the Lesser Zhuz in Kazakhstan and so on.”

This CIS in turn would be transformed into “an anti-Russian union,” furious “at the former metropolitan center. And that would leave Moscow with only the option to “support all-possible separatist tendencies in Europe – Catalonia and the Basques, Tuscany and Venice, Brittany, and Provence, Scotland and Ulster along with Wales, Bavaria and the former GDR.”

Not forgetting, of course, Baranov concludes, America, where a Moscow that found itself in such a position could play on Texas and Quebec as well as “Alaska, California and Hawaii, which as is well-known are Russian lands from time immemorial, parts of Vladimir Putin’s “Russian world.”

Baranov’s scenario is certainly over the top, but it does call attention to what others are pointing to as well (see Vitaly Portnikov in Grani.ru): the CIS and the related institutions Moscow has created to try to keep the post-Soviet space together and even promote its re-integration are in trouble and may soon be changed.

As Vestnik Kavkaza points out, this will be very much on public view in Mensk today where the inter-governmental council of the Eurasian Economic Commonwealth will vote itself out of existence as its remaining members shift to the new and closer Eurasian Economic Union. The CIS could be next.

Once the process of fragmentation begins - when groups are divided and alienated from one another - it's difficult to stop. When Yatsenyuk came into power, he was more concerned with pushing through his policy agenda than rebuilding the Ukrainian polity. Even with Poroshenko in the presidency, the Prime Minister, as far as Ukrainian domestic politics are concerned, represents the strongest obstacle to de-escalation and a settlement.

But again AP--here is no alive and doing well "fascism" in Russia?

[AmericanPride]

AP--notice how well the Ukraine plays the "game" and still you have a problem with "suckered in".

Ukraine hasn't played 'the game' all that well. The conflict has created political turmoil in Kiev, killed upwards of 3,000 people, cost billions of dollars in damage, and resulted in the occupation of a substantial part of territory. That's not exactly a 'win' for a country mired in deep structural economic problems. Yatsenyk barely had control of the country when he came to power - (remember the threat to resign his government after the parliament failed to fund the army?) - so it's absurd to argue that he or anyone else in his cohort has master-minded this conflict from the start (or did the Russians master-mind it? You've gone back and forth...).

But again AP--here is no alive and doing well "fascism" in Russia?

I'm still waiting on those quotes from you. Anytime you're ready.

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--you write many comments but fail to "understand" exactly what you are "seeing" but again that is a right left brain thing.

Remember I said to you Putin has a decision to make---collapse his economy around his ears or go militarily for the "final" victory. OR what I call a "death race".

IF and that is a REALLY BIG IF---IF this is true your complaints that sanctions cannot force anything MIGHT in fact be wrong.

BY the way go back six months into the Crimea thread and you will find that I indicated the single point of failure for Putin was the potential of "sinking oil prices" and that oil prices would in fact start sinking--boy did I take a hit on that comment BUT presto what are we seeing now?

THIS AP might in fact be the first indicator that Putin "blinked" and the "death race" decision was made.

Couple that with Putin's MASSIVE failure at the recent CIS meeting and his clash with the Moldavian President who stood his ground against Putin and one has a really really bad week for Putin. Remember AP the sanctions are also designed to give other countries a little more backbone and indirect support.

BUT there has to be more behind this statement than just being a potential smoke screen statement---IMO he is just trying to influence the coming Ukrainian RADA non alignment decision AND GET the sanctions lifted AND get his carrier from France.

DNR leader Zakharchenko agrees to 'silence mode' (translatable as real ceasefire) & withdrawal of artillery.

http://ria.ru/world/20141011/1027885660.html …

This indicates that now Russia is being forced by the Ukrainians to play the Ukrainian President's "game" not vice versa. AND Russia was not "suckered in"?

SO again AP you really do need to start analyzing and stop just writing words that have no meaning.

BUT see AP even though it "appears" Putin made a decision one then has to watch the battlefield as "his" actions speak louder than "his" words?

Massive attacks on #Ukrainian positions are concentrated near Debaltseve and Shchastia
https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/877097845634356 …
pic.twitter.com/vVJc0Hmp4Z

AND again AP--sanctions do not work?---come on AP expand your horizons.

WASHINGTON, October 11 (RIA Novosti) - Chances of Russia regaining access to foreign capital markets will remain slim in 2015, the country's Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak said Friday.

"Markets are closed for us," Storchak said in an answer to journalists in Washington. The Russian deputy finance minister went to the United States this week to meet finance chiefs of the world's 20 biggest economies.

Speaking about the outlook for raising capital on Asian markets, Storchak said Moscow was going to "study them at first." "We have never been present there," he explained.

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--you write many comments but fail to "understand" exactly what you are "seeing" but again that is a right left brain thing.

Remember I said to you Putin has a decision to make---collapse his economy around his ears or go militarily for the "final" victory. OR what I call a "death race".

IF and that is a REALLY BIG IF---IF this is true your complaints that sanctions cannot force anything MIGHT in fact be wrong.

BY the way go back six months into the Crimea thread and you will find that I indicated the single point of failure for Putin was the potential of "sinking oil prices" and that oil prices would in fact start sinking--boy did I take a hit on that comment BUT presto what are we seeing now?

THIS AP might in fact be the first indicator that Putin "blinked" and the "death race" decision was made.

Couple that with Putin's MASSIVE failure at the recent CIS meeting and his clash with the Moldavian President who stood his ground against Putin and one has a really really bad week for Putin. Remember AP the sanctions are also designed to give other countries a little more backbone and indirect support.

BUT there has to be more behind this statement than just being a potential smoke screen statement---IMO he is just trying to influence the coming Ukrainian RADA non alignment decision AND GET the sanctions lifted AND get his carrier from France.

DNR leader Zakharchenko agrees to 'silence mode' (translatable as real ceasefire) & withdrawal of artillery.

http://ria.ru/world/20141011/1027885660.html …

This indicates that now Russia is being forced by the Ukrainians to play the Ukrainian President's "game" not vice versa. AND Russia was not "suckered in"?

SO again AP you really do need to start analyzing and stop just writing words that have no meaning.

BUT see AP even though it "appears" Putin made a decision one then has to watch the battlefield as "his" actions speak louder than "his" words?

Massive attacks on #Ukrainian positions are concentrated near Debaltseve and Shchastia
https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/877097845634356 …
pic.twitter.com/vVJc0Hmp4Z

AND again AP--sanctions do not work?---come on AP expand your horizons.

WASHINGTON, October 11 (RIA Novosti) - Chances of Russia regaining access to foreign capital markets will remain slim in 2015, the country's Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak said Friday.

"Markets are closed for us," Storchak said in an answer to journalists in Washington. The Russian deputy finance minister went to the United States this week to meet finance chiefs of the world's 20 biggest economies.

Speaking about the outlook for raising capital on Asian markets, Storchak said Moscow was going to "study them at first." "We have never been present there," he explained.

See AP--that is why I always check Russian "actions" vs "words".

While the DPR announced they would finally "honor" the ceasefire and the same message was carried by both the Russian RIA and Interfax THEN this starts again;

#Donetsk airport is burning again today after a period of heavy shelling earlier this morning.

pic.twitter.com/n4zgajXvhN

So Putin did not "blink" thus he is set on a "military victory" and the DPR and Russian statements were simply what they have always been since the Crimea---a "smokescreen" in their ongoing attempt o get the sanctions lifted and their carrier.

AGAIN you never did state what phase of the Russian UW strategy are we in?

[OUTLAW 09]

Kaur,

Regional integration was also a project of Yeltsin and Gorbachev. Really, you could trace the ebb and flow of Russian desire for European integration as far back as Peter the Great. The alarmists today like to cast the Eurasian Union as the rebirth of the USSR, but that is not the case. Yes - historically and today views itself as a major power. Why is that alarming? So it should not be surprising that Russian elites also see their country as having an important role in regional and global affairs. Regional integration is the trend on all the continents.

The next evolution in regional economic integration will be building connections between these organizations. As far back as the 1950s, the Soviet Union proposed an architecture that would have integrated the USSR into the European structure, but this was rejected by the U.S., U.K., and France. Similar overtures have been floated in the years since but have not picked up traction largely because of mutual distrust. What's interesting is that the fragmentation of the international system through the proliferation of nation-states since World War II has not actually reversed the centuries long process of regional economic integration. How long can the U.S. and Russia sustain confrontation with one another while globalization is busy building connections between peoples and economies?

So where does Ukraine fit in all of this? What's usually underappreciated is the balancing act of Yanukovych. If he was such a henchmen of Moscow, why didn't he seek integration sooner? For his own political survival, neutrality was the only feasible option. He could accept Western integration (which he preferred at first) but it came at a high cost through austerity and reform, which would wipe out his domestic base. That's why he eventually rejected it, prompting the Maiden. The country's pending default is what forced the issue. He needed cash. And he needed that cash with the least amount of strings attached.

Outlaw has this elaborate conspiracy theory about Russia master-minding the war. But the reality is that the war was largely an accident; the outcome of a series of reciprocal actions in a system with no way to defuse security problems. War is a process, not an event, and a cycle of decisions, actions, and counter-actions quickly led to escalation. Only after the Russians realized that they were losing their influence (when Yanukovych was thrown out of office) did they move to seize Crimea and agitate in Donbas (Russia had 20+ years to move against an independent Ukraine if they desired annexation; why wait this long, at the moment of most desperation, if that's the goal?). As soon as he came to power, Yatsenyuk said he was on a 'suicide run' to push through economic reform. That reform was the selling off of state assets to private owners and EU membership, and blocking Russian influence. Of course Moscow freaked out. Ukraine was the breadbasket of the Russian Empire and there are alot of material and intangible interests tied up in it. This was never about ethnic Russians or their liberty and culture. It's always been about money and power.

See AP--your core problem is you neither speak Russian nor have worked with Russian staff officers in 2012 and 2013---and it tells.

The Russian 15th Peacekeeping Brigade is the Brigade I trained in staff processes and how they should function in protecting--notice AP I stated "protecting" the civilian population ---and they are deep inside the Ukraine.

Number one--Russia never does anything "by accident".

Number two --the Putin Doctrine has been slowly evolving since he first voiced a loose idea about it in 2001 in front of an ultra nationalist group meeting.

Number three--the Russia Army never absolutely never goes to war "quickly"--it is usually well thought through before they make a move--want to know why?--they are extremely weak on the logistics side and have been since WW2

Number four--this is not about money and or power---this is bluntly put a nationalist imperialist move defined under the "Putin Doctrine".

Number five---this is what we on the US call in the military a "trial run" of three things---1) the new military UW strategy, 2) the use of political warfare and 3) a massive test run of their informational warfare capabilities.

AND on top of all of this is in fact a test run of their new military weapon systems which are the centerpiece of their 2020 military strategy. You did read the article I linked you to concerning the Russian strategic strategy development---in that article you will find mention of 2020?

See AP---here you get it right BUT you failed to see that it comes out of their new military strategy---that is the key understand it thoroughly then you understand their next moves.

War is a process, not an event, and a cycle of decisions, actions, and counter-actions quickly led to escalation

You got the concept right but then failed to take the next step and ask yourself--what were/are the indicators and then you failed to take the indicators and match them to each phase of he new military strategy---it is really easy.

AND again AP exactly what phase are the Russian currently in?--I pointed it out to you a number of times but again no answer from you---they have worked the phases 1 thru 4 BUT then leapt straight into 6--WHY?

The WHY is easy and yet you ignore it--Russian was "suckered in"----the Ukrainian SF and SBU were able to a large degree negate the Russian SF and GRU units and the UA/NG and Independent BNs actually were winning which by the way no one in the West even thought it possible.

AP really take the time and thoroughly understand the phases of the Russian military UW strategy.

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine hasn't played 'the game' all that well. The conflict has created political turmoil in Kiev, killed upwards of 3,000 people, cost billions of dollars in damage, and resulted in the occupation of a substantial part of territory. That's not exactly a 'win' for a country mired in deep structural economic problems. Yatsenyk barely had control of the country when he came to power - (remember the threat to resign his government after the parliament failed to fund the army?) - so it's absurd to argue that he or anyone else in his cohort has master-minded this conflict from the start (or did the Russians master-mind it? You've gone back and forth...).



I'm still waiting on those quotes from you. Anytime you're ready.

So AP--the Ukrainians "are not playing the game well"--think about it--they knew after Crimea Putin was coming for the eastern Ukraine, they knew the West ie US/NATO would never go to war to protect them, they "knew" both the US and the UK would not hold to the Budapest Memo.

AND they knew they were militarily weak against the Russia Army.

They simply swapped land for time and heavier sanctions--they actually got both did they not AP?

AND they did it with a minimum of fighting units relying heavily on the Independent BNs.

Did the region take a pounding yes, were civilians killed yes and was infrastructure destroyed yes---but it was going to be anyway when the Russian Army came in --just look at Georgia and Moldavia.

BUT did the Russian Army take a hit in return--massive--over 4000 killed over 3000 wounded and or missing and the area they control is still limited.
REMEMBER AP--the current Russian Army units inside the Ukraine are not "draftees---there are some of their best elite units and yet they are still struggling.

AND now the Ukrainians are holding their own---they have boxed the mercenaries and Russian Army into a specific area and have not given up any more territory and they have completed refitted and rearmed and most importantly redeployed to better defensive positions.

AND AP--that is not "playing the game well"?

[OUTLAW 09]

So AP--the Ukrainians "are not playing the game well"--think about it--they knew after Crimea Putin was coming for the eastern Ukraine, they knew the West ie US/NATO would never go to war to protect them, they "knew" both the US and the UK would not hold to the Budapest Memo.

AND they knew they were militarily weak against the Russia Army.

They simply swapped land for time and heavier sanctions--they actually got both did they not AP?

AND they did it with a minimum of fighting units relying heavily on the Independent BNs.

Did the region take a pounding yes, were civilians killed yes and was infrastructure destroyed yes---but it was going to be anyway when the Russian Army came in --just look at Georgia and Moldavia.

BUT did the Russian Army take a hit in return--massive--over 4000 killed over 3000 wounded and or missing and the area they control is still limited.
REMEMBER AP--the current Russian Army units inside the Ukraine are not "draftees---there are some of their best elite units and yet they are still struggling.

AND now the Ukrainians are holding their own---they have boxed the mercenaries and Russian Army into a specific area and have not given up any more territory and they have completed refitted and rearmed and most importantly redeployed to better defensive positions.

AND AP--that is not "playing the game well"?

AND AP--there is a bitter and brutal SF guerrilla war going on inside the occupied region as well that no one is talking about---the number of killed Russian troops is steadily climbing and starting to cause concerns for the Russian MoD.

Rumour has it 1 of #Russian army SS-21 (Tochka-U) in #Rostov region was too close to #Ukraine border. It suddenly exploded. RUS were amazed.

[OUTLAW 09]

Notice AP--notice how the Ukrainians are keeping the political pressure on both Russia and the mercenaries--nicely done so far.

Meaning --you both signed Minsk 1 and 2 --either hold to it or face more sanctions--actually Germany has echoed the same thoughts in the last two days, and France has also stated without a total successful Minsk 1 and 2 implementation--- no carrier.

ALL now possible as the sanctions, the falling ruble and a major oil pricing collapse place Putin into a corner--either go for the military victory and suffer even more sanctions or declare "victory" and go home.

KYIV. Oct 11 (Interfax) - Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council expects next week to bring a complete ceasefire in the east of the country with the release of all war prisoners, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from their current positions and the establishment of control over the Ukrainian-Russian border, the council spokesman said on Saturday.

"We do expect that next week will be the decisive point in the process of implementation of the ceasefire regime," Andriy Lysenko told a briefing in Kyiv.

He said shelling had already become less intensive. "We hope that next week parliament will pass the draft laws introduced by the president, and there will be understanding on the part of the international community about, among other things, enlarging the mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which would make it possible to control the situation in the conflict zone on a larger scale," Lysenko said.

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting development from Putin--

1. is it a smokescreen in order to get his stock market and Rubel under control
2. is it a smokescreen because he is running out of money from oil sales
3. is it a smokescreen because he wants his French carrier
4. is it a smokescreen because actually his new UW military strategy failed because of moves by the Ukrainians to counter it militarily

OR is it exactly as this blog indicate--only temporary in order to gain time because he can move back in any time he wants to?

BUT notice not a single word was wasted on bringing out the Russian troops still inside the Ukraine.

Of course, one should never underestimate Putin's strategic thinking. May actually pullback troops (temporarily) to buy 'goodwill' & time.

No one should be getting excited or feeling optimistic about the news that Putin ordered troops home from "exercises in Rostov region."

BUT THEN this is still ongoing--so is it really just a smokescreen?

Please don't forget that Russia is still attacking Donetsk airport on a daily basis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...e-not-met.html …
pic.twitter.com/PzUpF1q6x6

Sadly, barely a mention in the media that Putin is now moving Nuclear weaponry into Crimea.

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears that the Russian announcement to pull back troops to their home bases was actually a "smokescreen".

Here is the more honest reason.

Putin orders 17,600 troops "on training" in Rostov region nr Ukraine border to pullback, return to base. Why? October conscription rotation!

What is more interesting are the "contract Russian troops" since their "contracts expire mid November " and winter is coming.

[mirhond]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPPgWr91vjw

Licenсed Rada freak Irina Farion cites Hitler (1:30) and proclaims destruction of Moscow an only goal of true Ukrainians.

[mirhond]

Talking to true Ukrainian nationalists is quite helpful - after some private conversations and public discussions on the forums I've figured out that their nationalistic fervor negatively correlates with pursuit to fight for Donbass - the most freaky and exclusive nationalists are the most willing to let Donbass go, because they consider it too much Russian and too much un-Ukrainian, therefore useless or even harmful to Ukrainian national unity. It looks like paradox - most disgusting nationalists sometimes are more peaceful then their moderate associates in this particular case.

[kaur]

Vishnevsky concludes that Putin would do well to follow the Biblical injunction to examine the log in his own eye before looking for the dust in the eyes of others and “began the struggle with nationalism, racism, xenophobia, and chauvinism” at home instead of allowing it to grow there while denouncing it elsewhere.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/...sia-prime.html

No wonder. Putin talks about Goebbels.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d83_1405016151

[Firn]

So how limited in time could that limited war be?

I have no idea but a longer time horizon, measured in years, can sadly not be ruled out for a frozen-in aggression. Arguably more is more likely then less.