War between Israel -v- Iran & Co (merged threads)

[Ken White]

What I mean't by that is that Iran is patient. While their ambition is to acquire nuclear weapons, they've been trying to do it for 50 years...

some, I could agree. Iran is not monolithic. Even among the Ayatollahs, there's disagreement on that score. What's the basis for your 50 year claim?

...They don't need to draw a line in the sand or instigate a war over it today! If they walk away from this with economic incentives to give up their measely 3000 centrifuges that probably don't work properly, then what have they lost? Nothing. And they gain whatever incentives and aid that's been offered.

Haven't seen anyone offering any aid thus far; may happen, may not. Why would anyone give them any incentives? Incentives for what? They've already agreed to better cooperate with the IAEA. We just said we didn't think they were trying to build nukes and they agreed they weren't, loudly and predictably claiming yet another victory over the Great Satan -- so incentives to do what?

Regarding China and Russia not supporting further resolutions against China, both countries have already announced their intention to not support further sanctions since the release of the NIE.

I've read articles today that said that and others that say China is still supportive of some efforts and Russia is not, other articles that say the reverse; Russia supports but China does not plus still others that say both are still leaning toward sanctions. All speculation by a clueless media and I doubt either nation has decided what they will do yet -- they know that NIE is virtually meaningless as a reality check; it's a relatively pointless political document pure and simple.

In any case, what China and Russia will do or not do is not material to the fact that Iran achieves no real benefit from the NIE other than a possible lessening of tension and rhetoric -- and they still don't know what we're up to...

[Ken White]

I think W just punted and the broadcast crew missed it.

Though the Bear and the Dragon probably didn't. The Mullah's OTOH get to ponder. Deeply...

[JeffC]

some, I could agree. Iran is not monolithic. Even among the Ayatollahs, there's disagreement on that score. What's the basis for your 50 year claim?

I wrote a paper on it: "China, Iran, and the Nuclear Imperative". You can read the chronology there. Ironically, the U.S. gave Iran it's first piece of nuclear hardware in the 1950's.

Haven't seen anyone offering any aid thus far; may happen, may not. Why would anyone give them any incentives? Incentives for what? They've already agreed to better cooperate with the IAEA. We just said we didn't think they were trying to build nukes and they agreed they weren't, loudly and predictably claiming yet another victory over the Great Satan -- so incentives to do what?

Incentives were offered last year by Germany and other UNSC member nations. Russia has agreed to help them finish the Bushehr reactor. Switzerland has offered to provide them and other ME countries with enriched uranium solely for nuclear energy use. But you've got to do some digging to find out about that. All of these incentives are for Iran to agree to not create a complete nuclear fuel cycle.

[Ken White]

I wrote a paper on it: "China, Iran, and the Nuclear Imperative". You can read the chronology there. Ironically, the U.S. gave Iran it's first piece of nuclear hardware in the 1950's.

Used to live and work there and still communicate with friends and acquaintances from there (both here and there), so I was aware of all that. Fairly good summation though. Your earlier comment to which I responded I took to mean nuclear weapons had been sought for 50 years, I believe that 17 or 18 would be more nearly correct on that score.

Incentives were offered last year by Germany and other UNSC member nations. Russia has agreed to help them finish the Bushehr reactor. Switzerland has offered to provide them and other ME countries with enriched uranium solely for nuclear energy use. But you've got to do some digging to find out about that. All of these incentives are for Iran to agree to not create a complete nuclear fuel cycle.

Also more than aware of all that -- my point was and is, the NIE effectively changes almost nothing (all of those incentives pre-date and none are, thus far, impacted by the NIE). It certainly gives Iran no advantage, probably makes them wonder as stated and shows our Intel community isn't too bright (IMO).

The only minor advantage is that it takes Iran as a US domestic political pressure point away if its handled right -- and continues that dummy Bush's rather neat and successful plan to rope the next few Presidents into his plan for the ME et. al. -- and give he or she who is next a minor break (unless that person gets a second term... )

I note that, like me, the IAEA is inclined to skepticism LINK. That may have a larger impact on the future actions China and Russia than anything the US Intel community says...

[Rex Brynen]

..when politicians and officials discuss sensitive methods and sources with and in the press? Sheeesh.

Details in Military Notes Led to Shift on Iran, U.S. Says
NYT, 6 December 2007

WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 — American intelligence agencies reversed their view about the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons program after they obtained notes last summer from the deliberations of Iranian military officials involved in the weapons development program, senior intelligence and government officials said on Wednesday.

[Ron Humphrey]

Used to live and work there and still communicate with friends and acquaintances from there (both here and there), so I was aware of all that. Fairly good summation though. Your earlier comment to which I responded I took to mean nuclear weapons had been sought for 50 years, I believe that 17 or 18 would be more nearly correct on that score.

Also more than aware of all that -- my point was and is, the NIE effectively changes almost nothing (all of those incentives pre-date and none are, thus far, impacted by the NIE). It certainly gives Iran no advantage, probably makes them wonder as stated and shows our Intel community isn't too bright (IMO).

The only minor advantage is that it takes Iran as a US domestic political pressure point away if its handled right -- and continues that dummy Bush's rather neat and successful plan to rope the next few Presidents into his plan for the ME et. al. -- and give he or she who is next a minor break (unless that person gets a second term... )

I note that, like me, the IAEA is inclined to skepticism LINK. That may have a larger impact on the future actions China and Russia than anything the US Intel community says...

Looks like theres no small number of recievers trying to catch the ball either