Taming Pakistan: Modi Effect

[Dayuhan]

No one in their right mind would slaughter civilians when they, too, are victims of radicals.

Yes, and that is the problem: the slaughter occurred, and the response of the state government, under Mr Modi's control, was perceived as being either grossly inadequate or actively complicit. That makes people wonder if Modu is, in your words, in his right mind, and it makes governments reluctant to get to close to him.

Sectarian violence can be an opportunity to challenge a radical narrative or reinforce it, depending on how government responds. If government moves in to promptly and effectively restore order, protect the innocent, and punish the guilty regardless of affiliation, the radical narrative is weakened. If government is perceived to be taking sides, the radical narrative is enhanced and given credibility.

This is to a large extent what happened in Mindanao in the early 70s: violence initially broke out between rival militias from the indigenous Muslim and settler Christian populations, with plenty of blame on both sides. Government had a brief opportunity to stay neutral. They failed to take it: instead they took the side of the settler population, kicking of a war that's been running sporadically ever since. It was a bad move.

I can claim to have certain level of bonafides, with a book and a forthcoming academic scholarship in that the radicalization and socioeconomic stagnation of the Muslim communities in many parts of the world (including South Asia) are mostly self-induced. In fact, I believe that we can identify specific processes and entities behind it. Only in this context I used the word liberation. The point is the state has the right to act to secure the rights of Muslim minorities (as with anyone) on the basis of human rights and religious freedom.

That said, I agree with you that Mr. Modi's initial few years of focus is likely to be, and perhaps should be, development. But that alone, obviously, will not make India's growing Muslim radicalism problem go away all by itself.

No, it won't but economic opportunity, especially for the critical young male demographic bracket, is always a useful element of any challenge to radicalism. So is a very clear effort to provide equal services and equal access to justice for minorities that consider themselves aggrieved.

What specific policies to you believe Modi will adopt to challenge domestic Islamic radicalism, and what policies would you suggest that he adopt? I'm also curious to see how he'll approach the Naxalite/Maoist insurgencies, but that of course is another topic!

[MoorthyM]

No, it won't but economic opportunity, especially for the critical young male demographic bracket, is always a useful element of any challenge to radicalism. So is a very clear effort to provide equal services and equal access to justice for minorities that consider themselves aggrieved.

What specific policies to you believe Modi will adopt to challenge domestic Islamic radicalism, and what policies would you suggest that he adopt? I'm also curious to see how he'll approach the Naxalite/Maoist insurgencies, but that of course is another topic!

I am afraid that your premise is flawed. Poll after poll (in Pakistan, the UK and elsewhere) have shown that in regions where radicalism is prevalent, educated, resourced and radicalized Muslims form the most potent threat and that the non-radicalized Muslims can do little about them.

Here's a terrorism 101 lesson: The sense of grievance against govt./majority community is cultivated by radicals to shift the blame away from themselves for the Muslim communities' shortcomings.

Without de-radicalizing Indian Muslims, increasing economic opportunities for them would be suicidal for India (the U.S. State Department folks have so far failed to grasp that).

Economic growth, to a large extent, I believe will work to alleviate the Naxal/Maoist insurgencies. My forthcoming scholarship, I believe will help us identify how to neuter Islamic radicalism. Until then, the answer -- from Obama to Putin and from Modi to Jinping -- is the same: who knows what the right policies are!

[Dayuhan]

The sense of grievance against govt./majority community is cultivated by radicals to shift the blame away from themselves for the Muslim communities' shortcomings.

Of course, but it's difficult to cultivate something that didn't exist in the first place. Government needs to starve the cultivators by not fueling or reinforcing the sense of grievance, and by undercutting that sense of grievance where possible. At the very least, minority populations have to know that violence against them will not be tolerated.

Without de-radicalizing Indian Muslims, increasing economic opportunities for them would be suicidal for India (the U.S. State Department folks have so far failed to grasp that).

The point is to compete for those who have not yet been radicalized. Since nobody has yet come up with an effective way of de-radicalizing those already radicalized, it makes some sense to try to prevent radicalization in the first place. It is not a solution in itself (neither is anything else), it's a component of a solution.

My forthcoming scholarship, I believe will help us identify how to neuter Islamic radicalism. Until then, the answer -- from Obama to Putin and from Modi to Jinping -- is the same: who knows what the right policies are!

The "right policies" will inevitably vary according to where, when, and by whom the policies are applied, but I'll certainly be curious to see what you come up with.

When we deal with radicalism (of any description) we often encounter two opposite narratives. One, typically espoused by radicals and their supporters, is that the fault lies entirely with vicious and incompetent governments who have oppressed their people into a radicalized corner. The other, typically espoused by governments and their supporters, is that government is blameless and the whole problem is caused by evil agitators who have corrupted the people. Both, like most polar opinions, are a load of bollocks: there are always elements of both in play. For a government faced by radicalism, objectively assessing its own behavior and getting its own house in order may not be the only part of a de-radicalization strategy, but it's a very important part, especially since the government gets to deal with something it can actually control.

[davidbfpo]

If demography was the key factor whether India's Muslim population became 'radicalised' would be a strategic issue beyond India itself.

In 2001 there were 138,188,240 Muslims, or 13.4% of the population; in comparison Hindus numbered 827,578,868 or 80.5%. From:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_people

India already has a problem with violent radical Muslims who engage in terrorism. Such as in 2006:

More than 160 people have been killed and 460 injured by seven bombs on the train network in the Indian financial capital Mumbai (Bombay), police say.

Certainly when I looked at the issue in 2008 it was clear violent radical Muslims were a tiny minority. For example:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student...ement_of_India

[MoorthyM]

If demography was the key factor whether India's Muslim population became 'radicalised' would be a strategic issue beyond India itself.

In 2001 there were 138,188,240 Muslims, or 13.4% of the population

Certainly when I looked at the issue in 2008 it was clear violent radical Muslims were a tiny minority. For example:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student...ement_of_India

David:

In every census since India was born the governments tracked religion, except the last one in 2011. That's for a good reason; the Muslim population percentage is said to be surging forward and the govt. in power didn't want the majority community to start worrying about its existence (it has good reason to do so, as Hindus have basically been wiped out from every Muslim majority region of South Asia)

By various accounts and projections, the Muslim population percentage in India now is around 17-18%.

There is this question of what definition one uses to define a Muslim to be a violent radical. By all accounts (including various polls) such percentages are low even in jihadist infested countries such as Pakistan.

But I think what's more relevant is the ability of violent Islamist groups to form and sustain themselves in a community. I have developed a new way of looking at this (this will be published in a 12,000 word academic journal article, due out in July -- for your information, let me tell you that I refer to a lot of data from the Pakistani Muslim immigrant community in the UK).

As someone with considerable exposure to the ongoing violent radicalization of Indian Muslims (as in my 2009 book), I can tell you that, Indian Muslims are now undergoing second generation process of radicalization. The Indian version of Tahreek-e-Taliban (modeled after the famous militant group in Pakistan) has just been formed in the central Indian city of Aurangabad. Few years ago the security agencies unearthed a massive arms haul there, that included extensive light arms, enough to equip a small militant group.

In 2008, India's National Security Advisor admitted that there are at least 800 terror cells operating, presumably in India's Muslim communities, supported by the likes of Pakistan and assisted by the Saudi funding. Indeed, India is primed to have its own version of Boko-Haram very soon. The underlying process are specific to Muslim communities and are assiduously cultivated by external Islamic governments (of course, the Western governments are busy blaming the local government(s) for what are mostly self-induced Muslim community-specific processes).

What this says is that the Western governments should get their act together and help India led by Mr. Modi, and not undermine him, as I believe they are primed to do (by trying to constantly put him on the defensive). That would be a strategic blunder.

Unless the current trends in Islamization are quickly and permanently reversed, we are looking at an India that's also going in the direction of Nigeria and more.

[davidbfpo]

Cited in small part:

What this says is that the Western governments should get their act together and help India led by Mr. Modi, and not undermine him, as I believe they are primed to do (by trying to constantly put him on the defensive). That would be a strategic blunder.

Unless the current trends in Islamization are quickly and permanently reversed, we are looking at an India that's also going in the direction of Nigeria and more.

I am not sure what would come from the West acting together to help the incoming, new Indian government - assuming they could act together. Yes there are some simple steps that can be done, although I am unconvinced they actually could undermine him. See this for a US viewpoint:http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed...519-story.html

From my faraway "armchair" the reported growth of Islamization seems tame alongside India's own 'small wars', none of which to my knowledge are realted to Islamization - if one excludes Kashmir. See:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2248

[MoorthyM]

Cited in small part:

I am not sure what would come from the West acting together to help the incoming, new Indian government - assuming they could act together. Yes there are some simple steps that can be done, although I am unconvinced they actually could undermine him. See this for a US viewpoint:http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed...519-story.html

From my faraway "armchair" the reported growth of Islamization seems tame alongside India's own 'small wars', none of which to my knowledge are realted to Islamization - if one excludes Kashmir. See:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2248

Public statements by Western high officials about the need to focus away from Mr. Modi's purported acts or in acts in 2002 Gujarat riots and directives to the State Dept. etc to do the same are among the things that should help.

The current metrics that are being used to characterize the onset of the so-called Islamization process are hardly robust IMO. And hence, what conventional wisdom says in this context needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

As I have shown in my forthcoming work, sharia's popularity is probably by far the most appropriate metric. By this measure growth of radicalism in India is not tame at all. It is a juggernaut trending toward formation and sustaining of Islamist militant group all over India.