General CT in Europe (catch all)

[AdamG]

File under "Perception Management" - Looks like ISIS flags to me

[SWJ Blog]

Afghan Emigration to Europe Seen as Setback

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[OUTLAW 09]

For those SWJ readers who think that IS does not drive on an intelligence driven operations concept...their attack cells use a form of OPSEC tradecraft that resembles that of spy cell tradecraft......think again.....reference today's Brussels airport bombing....we saw this as far back as 2003 in Iraq and it has not changed since 2003.

Cells operating by the book if one gets neutralized the other one gets into action to divert attention from the first cell.....and what has come out of the Brussels major arrest....not a single use of any form of communications outside of face to face....defeats every time any form of major communications surveillance operations.

Defeating IS cells has always been about the heavy use of police and security services to defeat them using their own tactics...not through the use of high tech which we seem to think is the be all end all.

[davidbfpo]

Two charts which illustrate the long history of terrorism and CT in Europe, which alas do not copy:http://qz.com/558597/charted-terror-...-1970s-to-now/

[davidbfpo]

Two more charts on deaths caused by terrorism 1970-2015 and people killed by terrorism 1970-2016 - the later includes those with an Islamist inspiration:http://www.datagraver.com/case/peopl...rope-1970-2015

[davidbfpo]

BBC reporter, Peter Taylor and an assistant, have a hour long 'Panorama' documentary on:

From highly organised cells like the one that killed 130 people in Paris, to lone attackers within our own communities, Panorama reveals how the so-called Islamic State's terror network has been operating secretly in Europe, and Western intelligence agencies' battle to stop it.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode...terror-attacks

It aapeared on TV here 23rd March 2016, it clearly relies on a number of "leaks", notably from the French, supplemented by a number of interviews and especially of an ISIS suspect in French custody.

[davidbfpo]

Interesting contribution by Nigel Inkster, ex-SIS (MI6) and now with IISS:http://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voices...nd-brexit-c6ab

An interesting part:

Last week I featured briefly in the BBC's Panorama programme, which depicted in remarkable detail how ISIS had planned and orchestrated the complex, multi-phase Paris and Brussels attacks. As is always the way, many of my comments ended up on the cutting-room floor. But during my interview to camera I tried to explain the difficulties intelligence and security services face in dealing with transnational terrorist plots. Intelligence does not come in a regular flow and when it does come it seldom admits of only one interpretation, nor does it always lead inexorably to the next piece in the puzzle. Items of intelligence that in retrospect seem crucially important do not always seem so when they first come to light. Working in counter-terrorism is to see the world always through a glass darkly. Panorama showed that Europe's intelligence and security services knew they were facing a major problem, knew many of the actors involved and were in a desperate race with the terrorists. They were able to avert some of the plots, but could not pre-empt them all. I know from personal experience what it feels like to lose that race. Successful counter-terrorism operations involve a degree of luck. To talk of 'joining the dots', as if the complexities and uncertainties of such work can be reduced to the predictable simplicity of a child's colouring book, is not helpful.

[SWJ Blog]

Experts: Troops in Europe Could be Next Terrorist Target

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[davidbfpo]

A debate on the Forum, started a couple of days ago on the current thread on French CT, deserves a thread - for the debate and wider implications, especially as savagery is a feature (hat tip to Adam G for his post).

This post will drop from No.1 when the posts are transferred.

The main thread on French CT is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=15299

[davidbfpo]

Richard Barrett, ex-SIS, has a short article today that fits here; the actual title being 'The best defence against terrorism is to show that it does not work as a way of changing government policy or public perception'. A key passage:

There are two strands to making terrorism less attractive. The first is to encourage public resilience to terrorism; the second is to ensure a proportionate response.

Link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-it-does--not/

[AdamG]

A debate on the Forum, started a couple of days ago on the current thread on French CT, deserves a thread - for the debate and wider implications, especially as savagery is a feature (hat tip to Adam G for his post).

This post will drop from No.1 when the posts are transferred.

Awesome. Suggest migrating Slappy's Sherman reference and my response as well.

[davidbfpo]

Azor,

How does 'collective punishment' of Muslims post-Nice work when the NYT reports? My emphasis added:

When a Tunisian man drove a truck down a crowded street in Nice last week in an attack claimed by the Islamic State, more than one-third of the people he killed were Muslim, the head of a regional Islamic association said on Tuesday.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/wo...lims.html?_r=0

There is a far wider application as it is a fact that more Muslims have been killed across the globe by Jihadists, than non-Muslims.

[davidbfpo]

The Soufan Group Intel Brief has an article today. BLUF:

Several recent terror attacks have involved suspects previously unknown to counterterrorism officials. • Investigators have used terms like ‘rapid radicalization’ to describe the trajectory of suspects who displayed no traditional indicators of terrorism.
• The absence of narrow terrorism indicators is not followed by the absence of indicators of radicalization and violence.
• Broadening the scope of indicators to include the propensity for violence and misogyny, among others traits, may demonstrate that radicalization is a much longer process than widely understood.

Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...-of-terrorism/


Changing the CT machinery maybe needed, with a potentially wider role for advance warning from civil institutions and the public.

[AdamG]

Anyone care to place their bets now?

MUNICH (AP) — Police were hunting Saturday for clues to explain why an 18-year-old German-Iranian man opened fire at a crowded Munich shopping mall and fast-food restaurant, killing nine people and wounding 16 others before killing himself.

The attack in the Bavarian capital sparked a massive security operation as authorities — already on edge after the recent attacks in Wuerzburg and Nice, France — received witness reports of multiple shooters carrying rifles shortly before 6 p.m. (1600 GMT). Six hours later police declared a "cautious all clear," saying the suspect was among the 10 dead and that he had likely acted alone.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

[SWJ Blog]

Why ISIL Fights in Europe

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[SWJ Blog]

A Book Review of “Islamist Terrorism in Europe: A History”

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[davidbfpo]

'Fear Thy Neighbour' is a lengthy report from ISPI, George Washington's Program on Extremism and the ICTI in The Hague and summarized in a BBC News item.

What did the research seek to answer? One author in the BBC item explains:

Although the vast majority of Islamist attacks are elsewhere in the world, an unprecedented number in Europe and North America - more than 50 in total - have put the authorities under great pressure to prevent further deaths. What do we know of the individuals who carried out the attacks - their life in the West, whether they were known to the authorities and with whom they were working?
The first look at the data behind the attacks - everything from the age of the perpetrators, to immigration status - offers counter-terrorism officials, and the public, an insight that could help them identify the best responses

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-40000952

The full report, 108 pgs, has yet to be read and is available via:http://www.ispionline.it/it/EBook/Ra...on_web_DEF.pdf

[Azor]

'Fear Thy Neighbour' is a lengthy report from ISPI, George Washington's Program on Extremism and the ICTI in The Hague and summarized in a BBC News item.

What did the research seek to answer? One author in the BBC item explains:
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-40000952

The full report, 108 pgs, has yet to be read and is available via:http://www.ispionline.it/it/EBook/Ra...on_web_DEF.pdf

Jihadist? But that would imply a Muslim affiliation, whereas these attacks were clearly orchestrated by irreligious, non-aligned and non-ideological "extremists"...

[AdamG]

No pre-existing thread for the following, so this opening tale of recidivist ISIS miscreants.

Police in the Netherlands have arrested seven men over an alleged plot to carry out what they describe as a major terrorist attack involving guns and explosives.

Police say the men were trying to source AK47s, hand grenades and bomb materials to carry out their attack.

The men, aged between 21 and 34, were arrested on Thursday.

Three had been arrested previously for trying to travel abroad to join foreign militants.

Prosecutors say the man at the centre of the group is a 34-year-old of Iraqi origin, who was convicted in 2017 for trying to travel to fight for the Islamic State group.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45673221

[davidbfpo]

A WSJ commentary by Thomas Hegghammer, a Norwegian SME on CT; it may be behind a registration wall. He ends with:

This hardening of European attitudes toward terrorism didn’t happen overnight. It’s part of a longer trend that began after 9/11 and accelerated starting in 2012, when European foreign fighters started going to Syria in large numbers. We should not exaggerate its repressive character. Torture and other egregious practices aren’t on the table, and the hard measures have been accompanied by many soft programs to prevent and mitigate violent extremism. The hardening is also uneven, with France adopting a tougher approach than countries like Sweden. Still, the changes are substantial and amount to a paradigm shift in European counterterrorism. It’s still early, but the new approach appears to be working. There are fewer European jihadists fighting on foreign battlefields. Domestic attacks and casualties are substantially down in 2018—not because plotting has decreased, but because authorities are foiling more attempts. For the longer term, the main challenge will be preventing militants who come out of prison from regrouping.
Europe’s struggle with jihadism is far from over. The new, more muscular approach poses serious questions about civil liberties, minority rights and radicalization in prisons. But Europe can no longer be described as soft on terrorism.

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-...guy-1538950931