General CT in Europe (catch all)

[SWJED]

10 Jan. Los Angeles Times - European Women Join Ranks of Jihadis.

... The story of the Dutch network, 14 members of which are now on trial, reveals the increasing aggressiveness and prominence of female extremists in Europe. In a chilling trend in the Netherlands and Belgium, police are investigating militants' wives suspected of plotting suicide attacks with their husbands, or on their own.

"I think it's a very dangerous trend," said Ali, the lawmaker targeted for assassination. "Women all over the world are seen as vulnerable, as less violent. And that can make anti-terror authorities less vigilant when it comes to women."...

[kaur]

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/pubs/ph/detai...ng=en&id=27221

[bismark17]

That looks really interesting. Thanks for posting that.

[Jedburgh]

The first EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report TE-SAT 2007 produced by Europol was presented 10 April 2007 in the European Parliament in Brussels.

The report identifies three continuing trends within terrorism in EU countries: separatism, anarchism and Islamic extremism. While the vast majority of terrorist attacks reported in Europe in 2006 were separatist in nature, the largest number of arrests were linked to Islamic extremists. The report indicates that France, Spain and the UK are the countries most severely affected by terrorism, and that most terrorist incidents in Europe are designed to avoid human casualties.

The largest single category of incidents in 2006 was separatist attacks in France and the largest single category of arrests was also of separatists in France; nearly all related to the island of Corsica. Separatist attacks in Spain accounted for over one hundred incidents, despite the ceasefire maintained by Basque separatist group ETA during most of the year. Coming in a distant third in number of incidents was left-wing/anarchist attacks in Greece. At the bottom of the list were Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia, who all reported neither investigations nor court proceedings related to terrorism in 2006, suggesting that they are the least affected by terrorism in the region.

[Sarajevo071]

Some very interesting info there. Thank you.

[Jedburgh]

Commentary in response to the Europol EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report linked at the top of the thread:

GEES, 16 Jul 07: Europe and the Nature of the Terrorist Threat in 2007

...It is worth noting in considering these facts and figures that Europol is not privy to the full range of information available from member states on terrorist attacks and incidents, primarily because some states such as the UK are reluctant to share details of ongoing operations, including arrests of suspects. The recently departed Director-General of the UK’s Security Service has suggested there are approximately 200 active Islamist jihadist networks active in Britain, comprising 30 known plots, and involving 1600 identified individuals. These statistics should be considered in con-junction with those made available to Europol.....

[davidbfpo]

After a long delay a coroners inquest into the deaths in the 7/7 LOndon attack opened last week; albeit under special rules, a judge sitting as coroner and without a jury.

There have been several reports, but this one struck me as worthy of entering here. References have been made in another thread on the "spirit of the blitz" and this indicates to the contrary:

Mr Henning was the first survivor to give evidence at the inquest into the deaths of 52 people in four terrorist explosions on London’s transport system.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-survivor.html

Last week there was an indication that Command & Control had "issues", starting with the phone system and this 'Achilles Heel' will re-appear:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...ube-chaos.html

[davidbfpo]

With a sub-title 'The threat is fragmenting and budgets are shrinking', a good overview of the current CT situation in Western Europe by Raffaello Pantucci, an independent analyst:http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/kmd/.../index.php#/40

[davidbfpo]

A slightly different angle:http://www.opendemocracy.net/andy-ye...-01-09%2005:30

[davidbfpo]

A short nineteen page analysis by Raffaello Pantucci, of ICSR, presented in July 2011 at Chatham House:http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/de..._terrorism.pdf

This paper will explore the current state of the threat to Europe, how it is connected to the broader threat that is faced in the United States and how it has evolved in this direction. In concluding, it will offer some thoughts on the current direction the threat is going and sketch out some problems that
Europe might face in countering it.... Nevertheless, violent Islamist terrorism with its preference for large-scale multiple strikes using suicide bombers often
coordinated by outside actors continues to be the main threat that is focused on by European security services.

Several references are made to information recovered in OBL's home.

Regarding Preventing / Countering Violent Extremism (PVE / CVE):

the world has not yet found an effective and comprehensive solution to the problem of young people becoming excited by globalist Islamist anti-establishmentarian narratives and becoming persuaded to go and fight abroad and in some cases come back and plot terrorist acts. Broadly captured under the banner of Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE) by the British government and subsequently emulated by many, the world has notably not managed to crack this code.

Ends with:

While it is clear that intelligence services across Europe have now begun to understand what it is that they are facing and to go
about chasing it, they remain unclear of how exactly to stamp it out. Consequently, ten years after 11 September 2001, Europe is continuing to manage its terrorist problem rather than eradicate it.

[Bill Moore]

I don't think this study broke any new ground, but it is useful because it is unclassified and therefore valuable as an education tool for those who don't understand the nature of the threat.

One part of the study was the author's apparent conflicted view on the importance of Al Qaeda Core. In one paragraph he'll argue they're not important, and then in the next point to their control of terrorist cells in the West. In short AQ Core remains important (though less important), and as the study points out the threat ideology has taken on a life of its own allowing numerous individuals, cells and other organizations to participate in open source Jihad.

I didn't see any valuable recommendations in the study, but I think one he could have pointed out was that due to fragmented nature of Jihad threat and other terrorist groups and lone wolfs acting to support various cause that it is impertative that the European States maintain capable police and intelligence services and that the their people are educated to be eyes and ears for security forces.

There is no silver bullet for eliminating the threat or preventing the conversion of frustrated young people to the various extremist causes.

[davidbfpo]

Under such a lurid headline, this is a newspaper story based on 'a senior intelligence source' and a "leaked" document - which may add some context to this thread.

The 200 British residents thought to be planning suicide attacks, either within the UK or overseas, represent one in 10 of the wider group of 2,000 terrorist plotters.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...cks-in-UK.html

[Bill Moore]

In no way are my comments intended to dismiss the very real and growing threat of Islamist terrorism in the U.K.; however, I find the "conservative" estimate of 200 suicide bombers in the U.K. to be a bit of a reach.

While a lot of young and not so young want to be jihadists will brag about their desire to die as a martyr for the cause, most suicide bombers (the real ones) undergo an intensive indoctrination period (or brainwashing) and then held in isolation until it is time to hit the target, because historically it has been demonstrated that they'll have a change of heart if they're allowed to rejoin society and become a sleeper bomber of sorts. Maybe there are Islamist safe havens within the U.K. where 10s of would be suicide bombers are isolated from the rest of society, but it seems unlikely. Of course I need to caveat the above statement that not all suicide bombers require extensive indoctrination (they're already true believers) and can hide in society openly for months and still hit their target as many of the 9/11 attackers did.

One report quoted an MI6 officer's briefing to US officials in which he said: "The internal threat is growing more dangerous because some extremists are conducting non-lethal training without ever leaving the country. Should these extremists then decide to become suicide operatives, HMG [Her Majesty's Government] intelligence resources, eavesdropping and surveillance would be hard pressed to find them on any 'radar screen'."

What type of non-lethal training are they talking about? Indoctrination?

There is no doubt that the insider threat is a growing concern in Europe and possibly the U.S. (especially the lone wolf attacks), but a suicide attack is an entirely different level. If they have the infrastructure in place within Europe (and in this case the UK) to indoctrinate, radicalize, inspire tens of individuals to conduct a suicide attack, and then of course actually provide the materials to do so (a topic not addressed in the article) then the threat is worse than I thought.

[davidbfpo]

After the French train suspected 'lone wolf' attack analysts are chiming in on how Europe should respond, although this is a global problem IMHO.

The thread title is adapted from Raffaello Pantucci's writings (now @ RUSI):http://raffaellopantucci.com/2015/08...ential-target/

The BBC has a former French intelligence agent Claude Moniquet adding his experienced viewpoint (he left the external service DGSE in 2002):http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34032781

He ends with:

The only way to protect society against the terrorist threat lies in strengthening intelligence and laws.

The Soufan Group:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...tack-revealed/

Everyone in Europe or the UK yes is a potential target, everyone then is the first responder - as shown by the passengers on the French Thalys train. In the UK there is ample evidence that the vast majority of onlookers do not respond, indeed they simply walk on.

Several references have been made to five to six thousand former fighters who have returned from the Middle East, a number that simply overwhelms being kept under official surveillance. I am always slightly puzzled at this phrase; if they have returned do they all wish to fight again another day?

How many such incidents, with civilian deaths is tolerable?

I do wonder if imprisonment without trial, known simply as internment, is not on the horizon. Not that I today advocate this.

[Firn]

Well there is no doubt at all that they saved many lives thanks to their quick thinking, personal bravery and decisive action. Honour where honour is due, and joy as well

Every story is unique it came to a very happy ending partly due the incompetence of the wanna-be-murderer but why did those men grap their only very slim chance to stop him in such magnificient manner? There are some interesting aspects:

1. Three of them were "childhood friends who had all attended California’s Freedom Christian School and often played military games together growing up."

2. Two of them were soldiers, maybe better American soldiers and one of them came just back from a combat tour.

3. Three were large, young and fit males.

There is no doubt that the cohesion of friendship of fit and strong men with a good deal of military training greatly facilitated their unity of action, but without their personal qualities like bravery among others those factors all would have been for naught.

Moderator's Note

Wise words and copied to this thread from another:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=22529

[AdamG]

I'll just leave these two articles here for comparison and contrast.

From February 15, 2015 -

ISIS threatens to send 500,000 migrants to Europe as a 'psychological weapon' in chilling echo of Gaddafi's prophecy that the Mediterranean 'will become a sea of chaos'
Italian press today published claims that ISIS has threatened to release the huge wave of migrants to cause chaos in Europe if they are attacked
And letters from jihadists show plans to hide terrorists among refugees
In 2011, Muammar Gaddafi ominously predicted war would come to Libya
He was deposed in a violent coup and killed in October of the same year
Islamic State executed 21 Egyptian Christians on Libyan beach this week
Crisis in Libya has led to surge in number of migrants heading for Europe

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz3lT4lvGnW

From September 3rd, 2015

The Greek coastguard has seized a ship loaded with thousands of undeclared, carefully concealed weapons, and possibly explosives, en route from Turkey to Libya. Local media claims the ship is linked to Islamic State (IS) and to companies who have previously smuggled goods to Syria – the Turkish foreign minister denies this.

The ship had come from Alexandretta in Egypt on to the Turkish port of Iskenderun, and was bound for the Libyan port of Misrata – a stronghold of the Muslim Brotherhood-linked group “Libya Dawn.”

It was raided on Tuesday 20 nautical miles off Create and has now been escorted to the port of Heraklion where searches began on Wednesday. The ship flies under a Bolivian flag, but its seven-member crew are thought to be from Syria, Egypt and India.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015...pons-shipment/

[AdamG]

At Budapest’s Keleti Train Station last week, Mahmoud, a Syrian from Aleppo, looked around the underground concourse packed with new arrivals like himself. Judging from their accents and dialects, he reckoned that little more than 10% of them were Syrian. But he saw many more passing themselves off as Syrians.

Indeed, during his journey through Greece and the Balkans on his way to Hungary, “I found a bunch of Iraqis buying fake Syrian passports,” said Mahmoud, adding that now Syrians “are worried that their passports are being stolen.” Nearby, a countryman furtively showed his passport, tucked between the sole and padding of one of his sneakers.

As Europe moves to take in large numbers of refugees, particularly from Syria, some other migrants—often Iraqis, Libyans, Palestinians and Egyptians—are attempting to pass themselves off as Syrian, said aid workers, government officials and fellow migrants.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/migrants...13612?mod=e2fb

[davidbfpo]

AdamG,

I would not always regard The Daily Mail as a reputable source of information. The February 2015 article when read relies on IIRC Italian intelligence officials and a lot of history, with photos. It also has a practice of accepting "spin" from agencies here.

Have you found any update on the arms smuggling vessel the Greeks stopped in international waters in September 2015? Without an update it is an official allegation. Some photos would be persausive and criminal charges too.

Elsewhere on SW Forum there has been a limited discussion on ISIS infiltrating Western Europe by placing their cadres within the mass of refugees.

In the UK there are estimates by ICSR usually that at least half of thsoe who went to fight in Syria have returned, many of them without being officially detected. It is not clear who they fought for (my opinion is they are from the pre-ISIS period), nor what made them change their minds.

Why risk cadres within the mass of refugees, who apparently are mainly being moved by criminal gangs for money? Often at risk from the gangs and being shipwrecked etc.

[AdamG]

Most folks are cognizant of the "Daily Wail's" shortcomings but here ya go.

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/mon...e_1653210.html

http://www.ilmessaggero.it/primopian.../1186106.shtml

As for 'cadres', considering the phenomenal lack of skill shown by the Charlie Hebdo shooters or the bozo that got his ass beaten on the train at Arras, I think that term is excessively charitable.

"Expendable True Believers" are perfect candidates to send across the Med to slaughter some Infidels and in this internet age, ISIS C4 assets don't need to be risked as long as their same little hackers we've seen to date are on the job.

We've also already seen how the *real* ISIS cadre has no problem using volunteers as cannon fodder take positions from Assad's forces, so the perfectly logical extrapolation would find some with their bags packed wailing for the Euro media's cameras.

As for the Haddad 1, updates aren't that hard to find but I'll oblige.

Charges specified
http://www.ekathimerini.com/201170/a...acked-haddad-1

Current vessel location indicates that it's still moored.
http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/det...essel:HADDAD_1

[AdamG]

File under "Perception Management" - Looks like ISIS flags to me