That's why I said "so far". The past doesn't tell us what the Chinese will do in the future. It does give us some indication of their preferred methods. That of course may change, but it's a starting point.Originally Posted by JMA
That comes down to a cost calculation: the cost of maintaining peace and security vs the cost of writing off the investment and replacing the resources with those acquired somewhere else. Western powers have often messed up this calculation by grossly underestimating the cost of achieving and maintaining peace and security, a mistake the Chinese might repeat, and by confounding the calculation with ideas about democracy, human rights, and other variations on the archaic "white man's burden" theme. That is a mistake the Chinese are a lot less likely to make.
Only relevant if the resources cannot be replaced by similar resources from another source. Generally they can be: there are very few, if any, really unique single-source resources.
The first and foremost mistake is going into a war that makes no economic sense - where the cost of achieving the goals exceeds the value of the goals - or where the probability of success is low from the start. The Chinese may or may not be more ruthless and more rational than the Western powers in such calculations: they are in no way immune to ego, pride, or any of the other eccentricities that lead people to stick themselves into places better avoided.
I don't see the neocolonial small wars of the West as enterprises that could have worked out if only they were "done right". There are things better not done, and trying to take over another country and run it for your own benefit is one of them. The age for such things is long gone.
We may find out one day. I don't think the possibility of China taking on a small war in Africa is something the US or "the West" should fear, and I see no reason to assume they'll be any better at it than anyone else has been. Their evident reluctance to take on such roles to date does suggest that they at least appreciate the costs and risks.
I do think it's a harbinger of things to come: a whole lot more Chinese will be looking to get out. I do not think they are going to be conquering all before them and reducing the rest of us to vassalhood.
Do nothing about what? If you mean about Chinese involvement in Africa, why would we want to "do something" about it? Not our business if Africans want to do business with Chinese, and in many cases it works to the benefit of the US and the West.
The discussion has gone way outside anything specific to Nigeria, and seems more relevant to the generic "Chinese involvement in Africa" thread. In any case the probability of China taking over Nigeria seems exceedingly remote, and the probability of China solving any of Nigeria's problems - or trying to - approaches zero.
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