Syria in 2017 (April-December)

[OUTLAW 09]

Assad propaganda concentrates on the rebels again, celebrating the "great victory" in #Qaboun and threatens #Jobar and #Al_Tanf.

[OUTLAW 09]

#LMC2017 Andrey Kortuov: US should show more flexibility on role of #Iran in Middle East/#Syria.

Russian rep to this conference......

[OUTLAW 09]

The video of a TOW missile system launch, which presumably led to Russian officer’s death in Syria.
https://informnapalm.org/en/video-to...-death-syria/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Damascus: #Assad Republican Guard Colonel Madeen Al Haifi died today after he was wounded by a rebel sniper in #Qaboun 8 days ago.

[davidbfpo]

From a website I have not cited for awhile:

The regime has almost cleared the Damascus suburbs, held by the opposition since 2012. It has been attacking Tishreen, and Jaish al-Islam still has its base of Douma despite intense aerial and artillery assaults.

There is a clip of 'industrial hose bombs', which sound like a variation on minefield clearing tubes.

Link:http://eaworldview.com/2017/05/syria...near-damascus/

[Azor]

No. My conclusion is that the USA + NATO were 'OK' with a military regime in Turkey, when that fitted their interests, and are 'not OK' with an Islamist destroying the Turkish democracy when that's not in their interests; i.e. that to the USA + NATO it never matters what Turkish people and/or governments do, and what repercussions that has for Turkey - but only what's in US and NATO interests.

The West had little ability to impose its values and institutions on Turkey without driving it out of the Western military alliance, and probably into the embrace of the Soviet Union. Turkey is the only member of Western international organizations to have moved towards dictatorship over the past decade.

...you forgot to add, 'and destroying democracies for the purpose of private interests' (see Guatemala, Chile, Iran etc., etc., etc.).

I’ll give you Guatemala, but Allende and Mosaddegh were not in the strongest of positions, and the Soviets were involved in both countries at the time. Khomeini spent more time jailing, torturing and imprisoning the Leftists than the Shah did.

…thanks to you, I'll use my time in more constructive fashion, sit down and finally write a history of that conflict - based on official data from both of involved parties.

Well, the Turkish government is less than trustworthy and the PKK is a non-state actor and designated terrorist organization. How can data be “official” and what about “discrepancies” between the two datasets? Otherwise, I’m glad to have inspired you.

You mentioned Austria, I responded about Austria - which you obviously do not understand, just like you do not understand that with 'European', as obvious from your prose to both topics

Then why refer to Austria playing a “prominent” role in World War II? Austria was about as involved in World War II as Georgia was in Stalin’s mass murders. If Austria has “crimes of history” to answer for, I would suggest that they are the Thirty Years War and the First World War.

How many hundreds of failed military interventions across their borders did the Austrians launch until they arrived at their place of enlightenment today, conveniently nestled among lands protected by the Trident II?

Can't believe you're that clueless. Please, inform yourself…

You’re conflating interventions in foreign countries with “military operations”, even though Wikipedia itself has separate lists for you to peruse

Ah now comes the usual accusation of 'homophobia' - just because you've never heard of paedophilia, and thus can't differentiate between the two.

You haven’t approach it from the perspective of paedophilia until now. Why make light then of such a serious subject? Where is the evidence that this man is a paedophile? Are you conflating paederasty and paedophilia?

…would you like to say you don't understand the concept of states where there are multiple, and different political and religious opinions/points of view? Where not everybody thinks and does the same?

Yet for all of Turkey’s diversity of opinion, Erdogan has had no problem purging the civil service, judiciary and armed forces of dissenters, or more accurately perceived dissenters.

Such diversity would also apply to the pro-Assad forces, FSA and SDF as well, no?

Who needs solutions? Only pussies are war-weary.

CrowBat! How behind the times. Hasn’t #ShePerservered appeared on the streets of Vienna yet?

The “30% solution” works. Just give it time. While we’re at it, we can also scoop up those draft dodgers tramping through your back yard and toss them back into the arena.

[Azor]

Only pussies are war-weary.

By the way, "pussy" is now a political term, referring to the liberty, equality and political power of women in Western society. Women have been marching against patriarchal politicians who are seeking to "grab" or otherwise take away their "pussies", and have worn "pussyhats" in order to protect and expand their liberty, equality and self-determination.

Suffice it to say, on the contrary, "pussies" are far from weary, and are "in it to win it".

Govern yourself accordingly, or else they will march up and flush you out of your Alpine lair.

[OUTLAW 09]

Charles Lister‏
Verifizierter Account
#@Charles_Lister 13. Mai
Very insightful article by @ColinKahl, illustrating #Obama admin perspective on U.S relations with #YPG & #Turkey:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/12/...trump/#…

But I stress it’s illustrative of #Obama admin perspective above/beyond anything else - except 1 line, US goes entirely unblamed.

Did anyone seriously think giving #Erdogan a referendum ‘congrats' & a White House visit would smooth over overt support to #YPG/#PKK?

Turkey committed egregious errors of judgement in #Syria pre-'14, but *we* also chose to back #Ankara's 30yr+ terrorist enemy: #PKK.

While glossing over U.S. provocations, the article presents #Turkey's strikes on #YPG/#PKK as a mistake. Would we have done different?

Moreover, the prospect of a “#Turkey-Kurd war” is proposed as a danger to #Raqqa, but it’s already a reality *because of* US strategy.

Raising #Turkey’s mistakes is *very* justified, but glossing over escalatory consequences of U.S. support to #YPG/#PKK is dishonest.

As I’ve said before, picking #YPG as our *only* partner in '14 was the obvious [& easy] option & it’s proven *v* successful, till now.

Point 1: Perhaps #Erdogan’s focus on a NFZ (or similar) in N #Syria was in part to facilitate recruitment of Arab opposition for T&E?

Also: one *has to* acknowledge how desperately naive the US T&E effort was in terms of the conditions imposed on prospective recruits.

The article suggests using #YPG for #Raqqa will prevent it from pursuing its broader goals in #Syria - I mean, really? On what basis?

Countless *very* senior US officials have told me: “we've no control over #YPG decisions - not our job.”

So… where’s our influence?

Suggesting #Turkey pursue talks with #PKK is right (I’ve also said so), but why would it do so while its #Syria affiliate is booming?

Serious Q - In what world (!) could we expect the #YPG to return all heavy weapons given to it by the U.S? I mean really?… Fantasy!

To suggest the U.S should demand a #YPG withdrawal east of ERV is also right - but we’ve tried that before & it determinedly failed.

To suggest an enhanced US focus on countering #PKK (while working with #YPG) is baffling. Our point man in YPG is a 27yr PKK veteran!

Lots of talk of getting #YPG to ‘distance itself’ from #PKK, but #Obama position was they'd no ties at all. Ambiguity = sure failure.

To suggest #YPG withdraws east of ERV in return for #Turkey accepting a land-bridge linking cantons = *everything* #Ankara rejects.

[OUTLAW 09]

Syrian army sends reinforcements toward border with Iraq: rebels
http://reut.rs/2pLK06F

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting comment as this now reflects the following....no US FP that affects Europe and or the ME will be largely supported by Europeans not to speak of their leaders....

Just back from Estonia #LMC2017: No US "conservative" defending Trump is taken seriously by European liberals & conservatives any longer.

[OUTLAW 09]

'US' SOF with FSA engaging IS in Southern Syria desert. Could be Norwegians/Brit w/ them too because they are known to be in the area

[Azor]

Charles Lister‏
Verifizierter Account
#@Charles_Lister 13. Mai
Very insightful article by @ColinKahl, illustrating #Obama admin perspective on U.S relations with #YPG & #Turkey:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/12/...syria-trump/#…

But I stress it’s illustrative of #Obama admin perspective above/beyond anything else - except 1 line, US goes entirely unblamed.

Did anyone seriously think giving #Erdogan a referendum ‘congrats' & a White House visit would smooth over overt support to #YPG/#PKK?

Turkey committed egregious errors of judgement in #Syria pre-'14, but *we* also chose to back #Ankara's 30yr+ terrorist enemy: #PKK.

While glossing over U.S. provocations, the article presents #Turkey's strikes on #YPG/#PKK as a mistake. Would we have done different?

Moreover, the prospect of a “#Turkey-Kurd war” is proposed as a danger to #Raqqa, but it’s already a reality *because of* US strategy.

Raising #Turkey’s mistakes is *very* justified, but glossing over escalatory consequences of U.S. support to #YPG/#PKK is dishonest.

As I’ve said before, picking #YPG as our *only* partner in '14 was the obvious [& easy] option & it’s proven *v* successful, till now.

Point 1: Perhaps #Erdogan’s focus on a NFZ (or similar) in N #Syria was in part to facilitate recruitment of Arab opposition for T&E?

Also: one *has to* acknowledge how desperately naive the US T&E effort was in terms of the conditions imposed on prospective recruits.

The article suggests using #YPG for #Raqqa will prevent it from pursuing its broader goals in #Syria - I mean, really? On what basis?

Countless *very* senior US officials have told me: “we've no control over #YPG decisions - not our job.”

So… where’s our influence?

Suggesting #Turkey pursue talks with #PKK is right (I’ve also said so), but why would it do so while its #Syria affiliate is booming?

Serious Q - In what world (!) could we expect the #YPG to return all heavy weapons given to it by the U.S? I mean really?… Fantasy!

To suggest the U.S should demand a #YPG withdrawal east of ERV is also right - but we’ve tried that before & it determinedly failed.

To suggest an enhanced US focus on countering #PKK (while working with #YPG) is baffling. Our point man in YPG is a 27yr PKK veteran!

Lots of talk of getting #YPG to ‘distance itself’ from #PKK, but #Obama position was they'd no ties at all. Ambiguity = sure failure.

To suggest #YPG withdraws east of ERV in return for #Turkey accepting a land-bridge linking cantons = *everything* #Ankara rejects.

The article by Kahl is insightful, and he is correct to tar and feather Erdogan for playing with fire and then crying about getting burned. Although, I would say that at least one attack attributed to Daesh in Turkey was probably the work of the Turkish secret services looking to kill Kurds and swing a key election.

Having said that, there is no acknowledgement of American and Western failures on the Syria file that derive from:

• Seeking to concentrate efforts on one or two actors (Al Qaeda and Daesh) out of the dozens of actors and various coalitions fighting in Syria
• Treating terrorism in the West as the main problem of the Syrian and Iraqi Civil Wars, rather than spillover from them
• Refusing to accept that Syrian and Iraqi Sunni Arabs regard the Shias, and sometimes the Kurds, as more of a threat than Daesh or Al Qaeda
• Wanting maximum control over events in both countries with a minimum of effort
• Attempting to separate the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts

[Azor]

Interesting comment as this now reflects the following....no US FP that affects Europe and or the ME will be largely supported by Europeans not to speak of their leaders....

Just back from Estonia #LMC2017: No US "conservative" defending Trump is taken seriously by European liberals & conservatives any longer.

Consider that NATO relies upon Anglo-American expeditionary forces, even if the British contribution is now hollow. When London, Paris, Rome and Doha were determined to oust Qaddafi, they relied upon diplomatic, logistical, materiel and SEAD/DEAD support from the U.S., which "led from behind" perhaps as a goodwill gesture in the wake of Bush's relations with Europe. In Mali and again in Syria, the French had insufficient lift or ISR capabilities despite their modest forces.

Quite frankly, many of the names seem to be from the pro-Hillary Clinton "butthurt brigade" that hopes Trump can be impeached, the 2% of GDP on defense requirement quietly shelved, the U.S. commitment to Europe renewed, and the expansion and deepening of the EU continued.

Why anyone would pay attention to utter non-entities like Kendzior, or useful idiots like Mogherini, is beyond me. The Ivans must not be that threatening if everyone still has money for circle jerks like this on NATO's "frontline" but not enough money to properly man that frontline.

You want to talk about the tail wagging the dog: well here you have it. The Europeans would rather pontificate than take action, and the election of Trump has provided a convenient excuse for them to bloviate. At least Warsaw is clamming up and holding onto its tanks...

[OUTLAW 09]

Consider that NATO relies upon Anglo-American expeditionary forces, even if the British contribution is now hollow. When London, Paris, Rome and Doha were determined to oust Qaddafi, they relied upon diplomatic, logistical, materiel and SEAD/DEAD support from the U.S., which "led from behind" perhaps as a goodwill gesture in the wake of Bush's relations with Europe. In Mali and again in Syria, the French had insufficient lift or ISR capabilities despite their modest forces.

Quite frankly, many of the names seem to be from the pro-Hillary Clinton "butthurt brigade" that hopes Trump can be impeached, the 2% of GDP on defense requirement quietly shelved, the U.S. commitment to Europe renewed, and the expansion and deepening of the EU continued.

Why anyone would pay attention to utter non-entities like Kendzior, or useful idiots like Mogherini, is beyond me. The Ivans must not be that threatening if everyone still has money for circle jerks like this on NATO's "frontline" but not enough money to properly man that frontline.

You want to talk about the tail wagging the dog: well here you have it. The Europeans would rather pontificate than take action, and the election of Trump has provided a convenient excuse for them to bloviate. At least Warsaw is clamming up and holding onto its tanks...

You really do not see that if the US wants and or needs allies for anything that they cannot themselves can hanlde creditability is critical... while Trump AND notice again it is NATO debating more troops to AFG while Trump dallies around on what he wants to do...

You seem to not notice what Merkel is indicating what counts against the NATO defense spending 2%...foreign aid, humanitarian aid and the number of African mission sets that both Germany, European members of NATO have been providing WHEN the US has largely not participated in that assistance.

Check the aid amounts vs GDP of both Germany and US....

And check her statement from yesterday....EU..has the largest market, the large economy and the largest amount of troops....on the ground in Europe and the US has to send troops over because they pulled out of remaining in Europe....

THEN track the amount of NATO SOF that has been rotating in and out of Iraq, AFG and now Syria...they have as much combat times as does US SOF units....AND that does not count towards the 2% under the new Trump rules....

BTW...want to take bets on a Trump impreachment....right now running 90 to 10% that he does not remain past one year..even the UK betting offices do not give him a chance either....

[OUTLAW 09]

NOKIA...the cell of choice for global jihadists...in Iraq they loved the 3100 and 3200 series...

[OUTLAW 09]

Consider that NATO relies upon Anglo-American expeditionary forces, even if the British contribution is now hollow. When London, Paris, Rome and Doha were determined to oust Qaddafi, they relied upon diplomatic, logistical, materiel and SEAD/DEAD support from the U.S., which "led from behind" perhaps as a goodwill gesture in the wake of Bush's relations with Europe. In Mali and again in Syria, the French had insufficient lift or ISR capabilities despite their modest forces.

Quite frankly, many of the names seem to be from the pro-Hillary Clinton "butthurt brigade" that hopes Trump can be impeached, the 2% of GDP on defense requirement quietly shelved, the U.S. commitment to Europe renewed, and the expansion and deepening of the EU continued.

Why anyone would pay attention to utter non-entities like Kendzior, or useful idiots like Mogherini, is beyond me. The Ivans must not be that threatening if everyone still has money for circle jerks like this on NATO's "frontline" but not enough money to properly man that frontline.

You want to talk about the tail wagging the dog: well here you have it. The Europeans would rather pontificate than take action, and the election of Trump has provided a convenient excuse for them to bloviate. At least Warsaw is clamming up and holding onto its tanks...

Azor...and Europe needs to follow this Trump WH??...really you must admit creditability means everything in FP????

This is the actual White House statement following NK missile test. See 2nd line. HAS White House now entered the state of permanent self-parody?

BTW...Russian MoD statement...not a problem as it impacted 500kms from Russian borders....

BUT WAIT...all those Trump aggressive tweets along with TLAMs and one MOAB and this statement is all we get...come on Azor Trump can do better than that??

[OUTLAW 09]

.@fordrs58 makes key point: What Obama and Trump sell as pragmatism is actually idealistic and bound to backfire:
https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...utm_source=twb …

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING - @StateDept’s Stu Jones says newly declassified info will shortly be released, detailing “the depth” of #Assad’s crimes in #Syria.

US accuses Syria of killing thousands of prisoners and burning the dead bodies in large crematorium outside Damascus.

@StateDept’s Stu Jones:

- ‘The #Assad regime abducted 65,000-117,000 people from 2011-2015 & practiced extrajudicial mass executions.'


WOW: @StateDept’s Stu Jones:

- ‘We now believe the #Assad regime has installed a crematorium at Sednaya prison, to dispose of bodies.'

@StateDept’s Stu Jones asked if military action could target crematorium:

- ‘We’re not going to signal what we’re going to do’

Jones says Russia and Iran have nothing to do with the crematorium in world notorious Sendaya prison.

Jones says the US hasn't presented this evidence to the Russians but we urged Moscow to hold the regime responsible for such atrocities.

[OUTLAW 09]

Having a 27-year veteran #PKK commander now in #PYD write an article titled — “#Syria’s Kurds Are Not the PKK” — is just a tiny bit ironic.

Hassan Hassan حسن‏Verifizierter Account @hxhassan · 9. Mai
For over 6 years of week-by-week chronicling of the Syrian conflict & Mideast-wide debates, keep track of my column:
http://www.thenational.ae/authors/hassan-hassan …

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...this is what I mean...Trump simply has no creditability

Trump relying on charisma to bridge old divides on first foreign trip

The White House is seeking to recast the US president as a world statesman, but critics say his confidence in his own persuasive powers is simply delusional.

“This trip is truly historic. No president has ever visited the homelands and holy sites of the Jewish, Christian, and Muslim faiths all on one trip,” McMaster said. “And what President Trump is seeking is to unite peoples of all faiths around a common vision of peace, progress, and prosperity.