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Thread: General CT in Europe (catch all)

  1. #61
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default 46 years of terrorist attacks in Europe, visualized

    A WaPo article, with many graphics; as the sub-title says:
    From 1970 to 2016: 5,215 people died from bombings. 2,463 from assassinations. 2,270 from assaults. 957 from hostage situations. 183 from hijackings. 88 from building attacks. Thousands wounded or missing.
    Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ism-in-europe/
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  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A WaPo article, with many graphics; as the sub-title says:
    Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ism-in-europe/
    All in an effort to portray the spate from the 1990s-on as "normal"...

  3. #63
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    Default Two commentaries

    A lengthy comment on European relations on the 'southern front line', alas only about Morocco and Tunisia.
    Link:http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summ...sm_cooperation

    The second is shorter by Peter Meumnann, of ICSR @ Kings College, has a broader remit 'ICSR Insight – ISIS And Terrorism In Europe: What Next?'.
    Link:http://icsr.info/2018/02/icsr-insigh...m-europe-next/
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-17-2018 at 11:51 AM. Reason: 123,186v
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  4. #64
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    A PhD thesis available for free: 'Right-Wing Terrorism and Violence in Western Europe: A Comparative Analysis' and the Abstract says:
    Using new and unique events data, this thesis examines the evolution of right-wing terrorism and violence in post-WWII Western Europe. Notably, the thesis shows that that the number of deadly events has declined in Western Europe under conditions commonly assumed to stimulate right-wing violence, such as increased immigration and growing support for radical right parties. It also shows that some countries have experienced considerably more right-wing violence than others between 1990 and 2015. To explain this variation, the thesis identifies two explanatory models. In Northern Europe, right-wing violence has been most extensive in countries characterized by high immigration combined with low support for anti-immigration parties and public repression of radical right actors and opinions. In Southern Europe, right-wing violence has been most extensive in countries characterized by authoritarian legacies combined with socio-economic hardship and extensive left-wing terrorism. Finally, the thesis offers an in-depth study of the Nordic countries aimed at explaining why right-wing terrorism and militancy have been more widespread in Sweden than in Denmark, Finland, and Norway.
    Link:https://www.duo.uio.no/handle/10852/60365 or http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-63024
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-25-2018 at 07:35 PM. Reason: 124,556v
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  5. #65
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Default Continental EU Anti-Terrorism Operations

    No pre-existing thread for the following, so this opening tale of recidivist ISIS miscreants.

    Police in the Netherlands have arrested seven men over an alleged plot to carry out what they describe as a major terrorist attack involving guns and explosives.

    Police say the men were trying to source AK47s, hand grenades and bomb materials to carry out their attack.

    The men, aged between 21 and 34, were arrested on Thursday.

    Three had been arrested previously for trying to travel abroad to join foreign militants.

    Prosecutors say the man at the centre of the group is a 34-year-old of Iraqi origin, who was convicted in 2017 for trying to travel to fight for the Islamic State group.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45673221
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-08-2018 at 07:58 AM. Reason: Was a stand alone thread till merged into this
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  6. #66
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Europe to Terrorists: It’s No More Monsieur Nice Guy

    A WSJ commentary by Thomas Hegghammer, a Norwegian SME on CT; it may be behind a registration wall. He ends with:
    This hardening of European attitudes toward terrorism didn’t happen overnight. It’s part of a longer trend that began after 9/11 and accelerated starting in 2012, when European foreign fighters started going to Syria in large numbers. We should not exaggerate its repressive character. Torture and other egregious practices aren’t on the table, and the hard measures have been accompanied by many soft programs to prevent and mitigate violent extremism. The hardening is also uneven, with France adopting a tougher approach than countries like Sweden. Still, the changes are substantial and amount to a paradigm shift in European counterterrorism. It’s still early, but the new approach appears to be working. There are fewer European jihadists fighting on foreign battlefields. Domestic attacks and casualties are substantially down in 2018—not because plotting has decreased, but because authorities are foiling more attempts. For the longer term, the main challenge will be preventing militants who come out of prison from regrouping.
    Europe’s struggle with jihadism is far from over. The new, more muscular approach poses serious questions about civil liberties, minority rights and radicalization in prisons. But Europe can no longer be described as soft on terrorism.
    Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-...guy-1538950931
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  7. #67
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    Default A Corbyn Government Would Be a Terrorist Threat to the Western World

    A Corbyn Government Would Be a Terrorist Threat to the Western World

    https://besacenter.org/perspectives-...rorist-threat/

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The intense public discussion on anti-Semitism in the UK Labour party has almost entirely overshadowed the problem of the huge risk a Corbyn-led government would represent to the Western world. Corbyn, a terrorist sympathizer, and various problematic associates of his would gain access to intelligence gathered by the British security services. How safe would it then be for other Western countries to continue to share high-level intelligence with their British colleagues?
    A Jewish Think Tank focused on informing Israeli leaders, so clearly bias may be a factor in this analysis. Furthermore, a long history of bad blood between Israel and UK. Nonetheless, like to hear what our friends from the UK think? Complete BS? Half truths?

  8. #68
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default A Corbyn Government Would Be a Terrorist Threat to the Western World: a reply

    I have now read the article cited twice, whilst I understand his arguments he is clearly not a UK voter.

    The furore over 'anti-Semitism in the UK Labour party' was largely an internal matter in the Labour Movement, with very little agreement and a "fudge" at the end. Before Jeremy Corbyn became the Labour Party leader the internal pro-Israeli lobby dominated; now their opponents are a significant minority and believe there is a substantial part of the electorate who support them. Those who do not support the Leader are either quiet or plan to leave. Others naively think the Leader will change "his spots" when Labour wins a General Election.

    Foreign policy, with the exception of Brexit, is not an electoral priority and for this Labour Party winning the election comes first.

    Yes many opponents of Jeremy C. have referred to his past support for terrorists and other "far left" causes. This "mud-slugging" has had little effect on the electorate so far. The details of intelligence sharing have been mentioned by a few. Jeremy's appeal is to a sizeable part of the electorate, a good number of whom think he is "new" and is actually a socialist - which the Labour Party wasn't. Polling suggests outside London and a few cities Jeremy's appeal is very limited, especially when so many 'traditional' Labour voters supported Brexit - an issue on which he'd prefer not to talk about.

    Is Jeremy C. a 'terrorist threat to the Western World' as shared intelligence may no longer be safe. How much "raw" secret intelligence is actually given to senior ministers? It is difficult to see him following current UK national foreign and security policy. A more likely and significant step by Prime Minister Jeremy C. IMHO would be to end the patrolling of the UK's SSBNs. He has been a life-long advocate of nuclear disarmament after all.

    Does that make him a 'terrorist threat to the Western World'? No, it does not. The "times are a changing" and he could be elected as Prime Minister. Somehow I doubt he shares the conventional 'establishment' view on the terrorist threat, let alone it's causes. President Trump actions have continued the slide in public support for the USA; I know the US Embassy here states this is not reflected in polling data.

    He would be a threat to the usual Anglo-Israeli relationship, but that is not the 'Western World' as much as the author thinks it should be. An anti-Israel stance might actually gain him more votes in the big cities and ensure the non-Labour left work hard to support his election.

    Anyway this is a strange question given the indications that President Trump reportedly neglects his communication security and the report he has already given away secret information on an Israeli operation against ISIS (which was subject of a post on a thread awhile back).
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  9. #69
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    True about President Trump not following communications security procedures, and neither did Secretary of State Clinton when she was Secretary. Her e-mail scandal was part of the equation that tipped the scales in favor of Trump. Two bad candidates for the office in my opinion, but we'll survive it. I was hoping you would tell me the article was complete rubbish, but instead it sounds like a bunch of half-truths, so a good propaganda piece. If Jeremy Corbyn wins we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

    I'm half way through the book LikeWar by Singer and Brooking, and it provides a very detailed description of Russia's interference in our election, thought the Corbyn piece may more of the same. Unfortunately, the tactics of disinformation on social media are out of the bag and a lot of actors will be employing them. The truth will continued to be buried in a pile of deceit.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 11-18-2018 at 08:32 PM. Reason: 150,336v today up 26k since Feb '18

  10. #70
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    Default ISIS returnees: three European reports

    A three part series of articles on the response to the prospect and reality of returning ISIS fighters, plus dependents, to Belgium, France and the UK by Eleanor Beevor (now at IISS, London).

    She starts with Belgium:
    It’s strange to think that at one point, Belgian authorities were actually happy to see a large number of young people abandon their European homeland for the battlefields of Syria. This was back in 2012, and many of those leaving had been irritants to Belgian police for their petty crime and anti-social behaviour. Their departure actually led to a drop in the crime rate. But soon, Belgium’s security forces realised that their loss of one problem would soon be replaced with a much greater one. Those young wannabe jihadists were far from guaranteed to stay in Syria. And fears began to proliferate of what they might do on Belgian soil when they returned.
    Link:https://www.albawaba.com/news/how-be...part-i-1166898

    Then the French report starts with:
    In 2016, a highly controversial book was published featuring a series of interviews with the then-French President Francois Hollande. Hollande, a man of the Socialist left-wing party, let loose a number of unexpected soundbites.


    But one that was met with particular shock abroad was his blunt admission that French intelligence services had “…a list of people who are believed to be responsible for hostage takings or acts against our interests”. If security forces located those individuals, he said, they had his permission to “…take revenge measures”. Those on the list were French citizens who had left to join ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
    Link:https://www.albawaba.com/news/how-fr...art-ii-1167306

    Finally to the UK, she starts with:
    The words “The Beatles” have been splashed across the UK’s headlines for the past few days. But it is for a discomforting reason that has nothing to do with the British music legends.

    The Beatles in question were a four-man group of young British men who travelled to Syria to join ISIS. And while 800 UK citizens left to join the terrorist group, none of the others received anything like the attention that this quartet did.
    Link:https://www.albawaba.com/news/how-br...rt-iii-1167690
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  11. #71
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Strasbourg, France (CNN)A massive hunt is underway for a gunman who opened fire near a popular Christmas market in the center of the French city of Strasbourg Tuesday, killing three people and injuring 13 others.

    More than 350 police gendarmes and soldiers supported by air units have been mobilized to find the suspect, who was already known to security services as a possible threat, police said.
    Speaking to French radio station Inter on Wednesday, the county's Deputy Interior Minister, Laurent Nunez, said that authorities could not confirm that the suspect has "terrorist motivations."
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/11/europ...ntl/index.html

    France says it cannot "rule out" that a suspected terrorist has fled to neighbouring Germany after killing at least two people and injuring 13 in the eastern French city of Strasbourg.

    Border controls have been strengthened and more than 600 people, including police, troops and helicopters were on the heels of the attacker who had "sowed terror" in the city, interior minister Christophe Castaner said.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...t-run-killing/
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  12. #72
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Petter Nesser on Foiled Terrorist Plots

    A two-part Q&A with Norwegian SME Peter Nesser, who makes an important point at the start:
    We need to include the foiled attacks to gain a better understanding of the threat. If we only look at launched attacks, we risk being unprepared to face tomorrow’s threat.
    (Later) If we take a look at the foiled plots in 2018 alone, there is no doubt that IS supporters have had ambitions to carry out large-scale attacks in Europe.
    Link:https://eeradicalization.com/a-conve...nesser-part-1/

    In part two:
    I expect the threat in the near future to continue along the same lines, but with more stealth and new uses of technology.(On returning foreign fighters) Only a minority among those who return will probably take part in international terrorism in the future, but those who do can be capable of doing a lot of damage.
    Link:https://eeradicalization.com/a-conve...-plots-part-2/
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  13. #73
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Europe hasn’t won the war on terror

    Peter Nesser has an article, giving an overview of European terrorism and it features a chart, which defies copying.
    Link:https://www.politico.eu/article/euro...war-on-terror/
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  14. #74
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Snippet collection

    Via Twitter, citing a newspaper report with no English version:
    At least 8 informants of police agencies or domestic intelligence met w/, saw or observed #Berlin Christmas Market attacker Anis #Amri according to our investigation. Only one of them seems to have reported back fully and honestly.
    Link to Twitter:https://twitter.com/abususu/status/1073542216184942594 and the original report:https://www.zeit.de/2018/52/anschlag...-offene-fragen

    I have always been puzzled how Italy has largely avoided Jihadist attacks this might help to explain:
    In the past years, expulsions on the grounds of extremism have acquired a key role in the Italian strategy to counter the jihadist threat.1 2015 in particular, marked an important change in the use of this tool.....the number of expulsions has grown significantly in the past 4 years. 66 deportations were made both in 2015 and 2016. In 2017 the number rose to 105 and grew again in 2018: on November 26 of this year, Italian authorities had carried out 112 expulsions.
    Nice chart too, too big to show here:https://www.ispionline.it/en/publica...xtremism-21804

    Finally Lorenzo Vidrino, a SME, now in Washington DC, has an overview review of CT in Europe.
    Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-46557305
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-15-2018 at 01:18 PM. Reason: 151,982v today
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  15. #75
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    Default Guns are a problem here too - even century old revolvers

    As the Strasbourg killer illustrated Europe has a problem with antique firearms, his revolver was over a hundred years old.

    Then I found via Twitter an EU-funded research project, Project Safte on Firearms and Terrorism in Europe. There is a free book, Triggering Terror: Illicit Gun Markets and Firearms Acquisition of Terrorist Networks in Europe, with individual chapters on several European nations.
    Link:https://www.flemishpeaceinstitute.eu/safte/publications

    In the French chapter on pgs 42-44 there is a Table 6 'Firearms seized in recent attacks inspired by radical Islamist'.
    Link:https://www.flemishpeaceinstitute.eu...fte_france.pdfilogies
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-24-2018 at 11:12 AM. Reason: Copied to the Illegal Fireams in Europe thread
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  16. #76
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    Default How many European terrorists with prior petty and violent criminal behaviour?

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  17. #77
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Returning foreign fighters MIGHT not be a threat

    Via Twitter from Belgium somewhat startling until explained:
    We’ve got interesting figures from the Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis in in Belgium (OCAD/OCAM). Of the 100 foreign terrorist fighters (FTF) back on Belgian soil, 75% of males and 90% of females aren’t considered as a serious terrorist threat anymore. On a total of 422 fully identified Belgian FTFs, 130 have left the war. 10 have died subsequently (mostly by committing attacks), and 20 are detained in other countries. Of those back in Belgium, 40 are imprisoned (of whom only 2 women) and of those free, 60% are male.

    Most of the FTF who have returned in Belgium, did so early on - i.e. prior to the June 2014 declaration of the caliphate by Islamic State. So their degree of disengagement might not be representative for FTFs eventually returning now.

    OCAD/OCAM doesn’t expect a massive return of Belgian FTF anymore. Of the 292 who didn’t come back, 141 were reportedly killed. But in reality, that figure is thought to be significantly higher by now.

    In terms of terrorist threat, home grown terrorist fighters are considered a much more important problem in Belgium nowadays than FTFs who have returned. About 50 of these FTF are listed as a possible terrorist threat by OCAD/OCAM, and only 2/3 is currently behind bars.
    Having not heard of this body here is their website, in English; which does not show such a report:http://www.comiteri.be/index.php/en/...eat-assessment
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-15-2019 at 05:43 PM. Reason: 153,461v today
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